Research Center

On April 22, we attended HQC’s 2023 AGM, and the presentation covered how the conglomerate achieves its dream. Building the hope on the simulative packages from the banks, licensing agencies, the company aims a VND140bn net profit of controlling interest, +6.4x yoy driven by a VND1,700bn revenue, 5.2x yoy. Notably, HQC several times proposes the revenue of thousand billion and net profit of hundred billion but fails as well. For example, HQC only fulfilled 31/11% of their revenue/net profit guidance at VND333.2/18.8bn.

In 1Q23, Vinh Hoan posted VND2,222bn revenue (-32% yoy), which was mainly dragged down by 39.4% yoy of the pangasius export segment. Vinh Hoan’s 1Q23 NPAT posted VND225bn (-59.2% yoy), plunged by lower net margin -6.8% yoy. Overall, 1Q23 business result of Vinh Hoan was in-line with our estimates mentioned and fulfill 18.3%/9.2% of our 2023 revenue/NPAT estimates.

Nam Viet recorded VND1,155bn (-5.3% yoy and +1% qoq) and VND92bn (-55.5% yoy and -13% qoq) in 1Q23. Despite pangasius export in total declining due to the low demand in most market, ANV focus on exporting to Chinese market, increasing exported volume by 500% yoy and 60% qoq to this market. Compared company target, ANV fulfills 22.2%/21.6% of 2023 revenue and EBIT.

The company targets a VND20,000bn revenue and a VND400bn EBT. In 1Q23, NKG made a loss of around VND50bn while the revenue is around VND4,300-4,400bn, according to the BOD. The BOD expects 2Q23 will be the turnaround, bringing the 1H23 profit to be positive.

VN30F2305 is testing the 1,050 pts zone with no valid trading signal. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the valid trading signal on VN30F2305 (Hourly chart)

In the short term, the VNIndex still closes below the 50-period moving average, showing a downtrend. That means the downside risk is still intact. Hence, traders should be careful and reduce long positions.

We predict Vietnam’s real GDP to accelerate in 2Q23 with an impressive growth rate of 6.92% YoY due to a solid retail sales growth, higher public investment, and improving external factors, especially the promising China’s rebound. Besides, we expect inflation to be well-controlled although facing challenges related to raising retail electricity prices and the potential AFS outbreak. Seafood and agriculture, in our view, would be benefitted from China's reopening and global uncertainty themes in 2Q23. Oil&Gas is the bright spot in the long run thanks to recent positive catalysts.

Long positions on VN30F2304 should be closed and new trading positions should be stalked on upcoming contract (VN30F2305). (Hourly chart)

The VNIndex closes below the 50-period moving average, showing a downtrend. That means the downside risk is still intact. Hence, traders should be careful and reduce long positions.

On Apr 18, we attended AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. What we feel is vague lies in the right issuance plan up to a VND600bn receipt in 2H23F to refinance or shore up the working capital demand for Chau Duc industrial /real estate. Given the abundant cash balance and flattish yoy growth of net profit in 2023, we think the trade of the diluted share risk for investment growth prospect is not justified. Based on management's guidance of 2023F profit, 12MF PE of 15.3 times trailed the 2-year median of 15.1x, higher than the average TTM VNINDEX of 9-11x. We believe this premium is not reasonable in light of its flattish net profit growth and risky net gearing.