10
December
According to GSO estimates, total trade value increased by 4.51% YoY to reach USD45.1bn in November 2019. In particular, the value of export increased by 3.77% YoY to USD22.6bn, while the import value rose by 4.52% YoY to achieve USD22.5bn. As a result, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD100mn in the trade balance.
04
December
Masan MEATLife lists its common shares on UPCoM on 09 December 2019 with the ticker MML. Masan MEATLife is one of the two largest players in animal feed market. The strategy to expand its business to meat market with MEATDeli pork product will make meat business become the growth driver for Masan MEATLife on the path to 2022.
25
November
Data from SBV shows a net injection of liquidity via OMO market in October 2019. Similar to the recent months, the central bank mostly used 7-day T-bill to put a tightening pressure on the liquidity of the market. However, transactions recorded a slowdown by the end of last month.
07
November
According to GSO, total trade value increased by 1.30% YoY to reach USD44.9bn in October 2019. In particular, the value of export declined 0.79% YoY to USD22.4bn while the import value increased 3.47%YoY to achieve USD22.5bn, resulting in a deficit of USD100mn in the trade balance. We estimate export to grow 13.78% YoY and import to grow 12.57% YoY in Nov 2019.
25
October
Based on 1-Y average PER of 5.5x, we evaluate VHC’s share value at VND90,000 per share by the end of 2020. According to today (24/10/2019) price is VND78,500, the total 1-year expected return is 17.1%, including VND2,000 cash dividend. Our recommendation on VHC is OVERWEIGHT for 1-year investment period.
25
October
Despite outperforming other local players at the present, HT1 will face capacity constraint, thus limiting its growth in 2020-2021. Using the average EV/EBITDA of 4.5 and P/E of 9.5, we evaluate the HT1 share at VND17,100 by the end of 2020. Including the VND1,200 cash dividend per share, total expected return is 10.9% at the current market price of VND16,500. Recommend NEUTRAL.
10
October
Using DDM valuation method with our expectation that the company will pay cash dividend consistently and having not reflected Pha Lai 3 into our model, we evaluate PPC share at VND30,000 per share at the end of 2020. Hence, with the current price of VND25,000, the total 1-year expected return is 27% (including 7% dividend return of the remaining VND1,800 cash dividend for 2019). Therefore, we reiterate OVERWEIGHT recommendation for PPC.
08
October
Vietnam real GDP in 3Q2019 was estimated to post VND957.1trn, growing 7.31% YoY and 58 basis point higher than that of the previous quarter. Industry and construction sector and services sector improved significantly while agriculture, forestry and fishery sector performed poorly.
08
October
For FY2020, we estimate revenue and net profit at VND79,805bn and VND9,381bn. As the result,, we value HPG share at VND28,000 at the end of 2020. Therefore, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation.
08
August
We estimate the price for BID share will reach VND33k per share by the end of 2019 and VND43k per share by the end of 2020. We expect the capital injection from KEB Hana Bank will start working in 2020, improving business performance of BIDV. Therefore, we recommend NEUTRAL to BID share.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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