27
February
It took two weeks since the outbreak for the number of new confirmed cases to peak in China in late January and early February. Therefore, the outbreak in South Korea may progress in the same way. However, we expect that Chinese lesson will help South Korea contain the spreading faster, maybe in early March.
26
February
Trading Strategy: Long VN30F2003 at 835 pts zone, take profit at 850 pts and stoploss at 825 pts.
26
February
Despite the strong recovery, the market sentiment remained cautious as the negative impact of the COVID-2019 on the global economy after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Korea and Italy. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next bullish signal.
25
February
Trading strategy: Staying on the sidelines and waiting for consolidation or short-term correction phase to capture the next leg of the trend.
25
February
Last week, foreign selling activities accelerated, recorded net sell value of USD49mn, 6 times higher compared to the previous week. South East Asia continued to experience outflow, recorded the net outflow at USD23mn, 11 times higher than the previous week.
25
February
Investors have been worried about the impact of the Covid-2019 on the global economy after the spread of the coronavirus in Korea. Hence, the downside risk is high in the short term. Traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next bullish signal.
24
February
Trading strategy: Long VN30F2003 at 861 pts zone when this instrument reacts positively at this zone, take profit at 900 pts and stoploss at 854 pts.
24
February
In the short term, the market sentiment has become cautious because of the high selling pressure on large-cap stocks. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next bullish signal.
24
February
In the short term, indicators lose consensus, with high downside risk. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions, stay on the sidelines and wait for reliable signals.
21
February
In spite of export prospect, flat domestic market and higher WMP price keep us cautious about Vinamilk in 2020. Based on the fair PER of 19.5x, we evaluate VNM share at VND115k by the end of 2020. Including VND4,000 cash dividend, total 1-year expected return is 12.3%. HOLD.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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