![TCB – 2Q20 review [BUY +27%] Investment banking still strong](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
07
August
The bank reported a healthier assets quality as compared to 1Q20 with delinquency ratio of 1.9% (-0.2%p qoq) and NPL ratio of 0.9% (-0.2%p qoq). The NPL of BB segment was up 0.2%p to 0.5% while that of other segments gone down. Restructured COVID-19 loans was VND8.3tn, equaling to 3.6% of total loan book, which seem better than initial estimated size of maximum 7% loan book.
06
August
In 2Q20, Vinamilk recorded consolidated revenue of VND15,495bn (+6.1% yoy) and NPAT of VND3,072bn (+6.0% yoy) in 2Q20. Overall, Vinamilk’s 1H20 revenue and NPAT completed 50% and 53% of year targets. In 2H20, although domestic market is recovering to pre-pandemic level, we are concerned that Vinamilk’s growth space will face difficulties from the pandemic impact in export markets, driven by (1) conducted strict measures of Iraq government, and (2) extending school closure in the U.S.
06
August
Short VN30F2008 at 770 pts level, take a profit at 760 pts and stop a loss immediately at 775 pts.
06
August
In the short term, the uptrend is still intact thanks to island reversal pattern. Therefore, traders should increase their long position and focus on leading stocks.
06
August
In 2Q20, Vinh Hoan recorded consolidated net revenue of VND1,630bn (-19.5% yoy) and NPAT of VND215bn (-48.7% yoy). In 2H20, we expect the surge of pangasius export volume to EU coupled with revenue acceleration of Collagen & Gelatin will offset the slow recovery of pangasius export to the U.S.. In overall, we estimate Vinh Hoan’s 2020 revenue and 2020 NPAT to record VND7,270bn and VND919bn, respectively.
05
August
Restructured COVID-19 loans made up ~2.7% of total loan book (VND~7tn). MBB’s NIM narrowed by 12bps qoq to 4.81% in 2Q20, same move with its peers even though a 3%p qoq enhancing in CASA ratio to 33%. Thanks to improvement in assets quality in 2Q20, we adjust upward 2020F controlling-interest NP to VND7.5tn (-4% yoy) by 7.5% from our latest update.
05
August
Long VN30F2008 at 760 pts zone, take a profit at 805 pts and stop a loss immediately at 750 pts.
05
August
Sluggishness in banking lending activity excites participants in the money and G-bond markets due to high uncertainties in the business conditions. As a result, interbank rates and bond yields continued to stay low along with increasing trading activities. We predict that the situation will continue to happen in the next month until the first lending market picking up.
05
August
Market sentiment has become optimistic thanks to the high demand on large-cap stocks. Besides, the island reversal pattern is confirmed, implying the short-term uptrend. Therefore, traders should increase their long position and focus on leading stocks.
04
August
Long VN30F2008 at 740-745 pts zone, take a profit at 800 pts and stop a loss immediately at 735 pts.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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