25
July
The market maintains to increase with high liquidity, showing that the inflow is still positive. This reflects the market's optimistic sentiment towards the scenario of the VNIndex successfully surpassing the significant resistance level of 1,200 pts and confirming the uptrend. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
25
July
The trading interest has started to spread to all cover warrants which have different underlying assets as well as trading activity also surged across groups. This is the sign for the active market.
24
July
Cheap money, in terms of interbank loans, persists this week when modest improvement in lending activities cannot offset the funds increase from banks through recent bond issuance. Hence, SBV’s intervention in OMO was redundant in the situation of the government’s urge for more dovish actions and liquidity excessiveness. We predict the cheap money phenomena in the money market to endure unless the loan performance improves significantly or Fed reveals a more hawkish than expected decision, threatening the stability of USDVND.
24
July
In general, demand intensified strongly in the previous week, showing inflow across ETFs in Vietnam was still positive. However, there is still notable differentiation in capital allocation, primarily focusing on KIM GROWTH VN30 ETF and VANECK VIETNAM ETF, while other major ETFs remained to experience capital withdrawals or fail to attract inflows.
24
July
New positions should be placed if there is the minor correction or the short-term range bound. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines in order to capture the best bid/offer (Hourly chart).
24
July
Inflow is intensified in the session, pushing the market increases by more than 1% with high liquidity. Besides, the VNIndex advance into the 1,180-1,200 pts zone, a significant resistance zone. Accordingly, if this index successfully surpasses the 1,200-pts threshold, an uptrend will be confirmed. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next breakout signal.
24
July
The active long-term bullish move is confirmed. Thus, traders could hold the long positions on leading stocks. For new positions, minor correction or short-term range bound should be used to capture the good entry on leading stocks.
21
July
New positions should be placed if there is the minor correction or the short-term range bound. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines in order to capture the best bid/offer (Hourly chart).
21
July
The market closes around the reference point thanks to the bottom-fishing demand in the afternoon. Besides, liquidity decreases in the session, showing that profit-talking pressure is not strong. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
21
July
On Jul 20, we attended NLG Day held by Nam Long, and the presentation covered the 2Q23 business results, presales target. Addressing the presales growth in 2H23F of VND8,563bn vs VND867bn in 1H23, the company shares they are bullish. We acknowledge the company’s ambition and effort to shore up the sales plan but stay skeptical about the feasibility and expect the company could reinstate its presales target down in the 4Q23. We are reviewing the earnings in 2023F-25F to factor in the true landscape of NLG’s business plan.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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