20
January
Long positions captured at 1,060-1,070 pts should be closed only at ATC session on this day (expiration date). During the trading session, if there is the collapse, out the positions immediately when 1,100 pts level is broken.
20
January
Based on the crash, the downside risk increases. Besides, VNIndex crosses the 20-period moving average going down, which implies the early selling signal in the short term. Thus, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
19
January
Long VN30F2101 at 1,060-1,070 pts area and out the positions immediately when 1,025 pts level is broken. Notably, volatility level has already increased massively, hence the position size need to be controlled carefully.
18
January
Long positions captured at 1,045 pts should not be closed, riding the upward swing until it ends and out half of the positions when 1,160 pts level is broken. The remaining positions should be closed only when 1,115 pts level is pierced. For new positions, traders should long VN30F2101 at 1,165-1,170 pts area and out the positions immediately when 1,160 pts level is broken.
18
January
Despite the contraction, the short-term uptrend is still intact thanks to bullish signals of the VNIndex. Therefore, traders should hold their long position and focus on leading stocks.
18
January
Last week, selling activities increased massively due to the large sell orders on MSN via put-through method. Breaking down by sectors, selling activities mainly absorbed by Consumer Staples, Materials, and Financials whilst Real Estate continued to attract the most foreign demand across the market. Regarding to ETF flow, Vietnam maintained the positive flow of money thanks to VFMVN Diamond ETF and VanEck Vietnam ETF which attracted the total of USD20mn last week.
15
January
Long positions captured at 1,045 pts should not be closed, riding the upward swing until it ends and out half of the positions when 1,160 pts level is broken. The remaining positions should be closed only when 1,115 pts level is pierced. For new positions, traders should long VN30F2101 at 1,165-1,170 pts area and out the positions immediately when 1,160 pts level is broken.
15
January
Volatility level is increased and price shock will likely to occurs as the all-time high is tested. However, the market has already entered the long-term bull and there is no place for the bear. Therefore, traders should hold their long positions and focus on leading stocks.
15
January
As mentioned above, there is the fresh long-term bull but it will be paused at 1,200 pts area. Thus, investors should hold the current positions and increase the proportion on leading stocks at the buy zone (1,040-1,080 pts) when the collapse occurs.
15
January
We attended online meeting held by VIC on Jan 14 where our emotion was overwhelming driven by the stunning strategy plans on their digital transformation, global Vinfast presence and One Mount Group mission. We think that those ambitious milestones could come closer no matter what the short and medium-term challenges are. We attribute that VIC is the only company in Vietnam with extensive presence across the consumer ecosysterm and with superior data analytics capabilities is the key driver.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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