14
August
The VNIndex displays strong bullish sentiment with a medium-term uptrend, supported by 100- and 200-day moving averages. However, consolidation phase is possible due to high valuation and selling pressure.
11
August
2Q23 PBT edged up VND6,550bn (+13.2%yoy). Accumulated results, 1H23 PBT rose by 8.0%yoy to VND12,530bn, completing 60% of the 2023 PBT target. 2Q23 credit growth was up 6.6%YTD, higher than 1Q23’s 4.5% and the industry’s 4.7%. 1H2023 NIM was 2.9% (vs 1Q23’s 2.94% and 1H22’s 2.83%) with the higher COF amid the remained high deposit rates for longer terms. 2Q23 NFI rose sharply by 21.5% to VND3,164bn, driven by FX (+45%yoy) and fee incomes (+14%yoy). 2Q23 CIR and 1H2023 remained at 27% (vs 2Q22’s 27%) and 26.0% (vs 1H2022’s 27%). 2Q23 NPL (2-5 group) and NPL (3-5 group) maintained at 3.86% (1Q23’s 3.95% and 2Q22’s 2.59%) and 1.27% (1Q23’s 1.28% and 2Q22’s 1.35%) respectively.
11
August
July showed clear signs of economic recovery, highlighted by robust FDI inflows. Moreover, despite a 0.25% Fed rate increase, Vietnam's manageable inflation permits an expansive monetary strategy for supporting the economy. In the second half of 2023, the VNIndex aims for a 1,260 to 1,340 pts range, backed by a June breakout and established new 3-year cycle.
11
August
VNM posted a revenue of VND15.2tn (+1.7% yoy) and PAT of VND 2,229bn (+6% yoy) in 2Q23. For 1H23, revenue and PAT were VND29.2tn and VND4,135bn respectively, completed 46% and 48% of the 2023 guidance. The domestic revenue was VND11.4tn in 2Q23, up 3.8% yoy. VNM gained domestic market share in 2Q23 driven by condensed milk, drinking yogurt, and spoon yogurt segments amid weak demand.
11
August
Bullish momentum is still active. The current bullish swing could support the long positions but new long positions for swing trading are not recommended. New positions should be placed if there is the minor correction or the short-term range bound to capture the good risk/reward ratio.
11
August
The stock market maintains to decrease strongly with liquidity still at a high level, indicating selling activities intensify in the session. However, the VNIndex remains ends above both the important resistance level of 1,200 pts and the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
10
August
Bullish momentum is still active. The current bullish swing could support the long positions but new long positions for swing trading are not recommended. New positions should be placed if there is the minor correction or the short-term range bound to capture the good risk/reward ratio. For short-term trading, traders could buy VN30F2308 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,230 pts level (Hourly chart).
10
August
The stock market decreases significantly during the session with liquidity at a high level, showing the investors’ caution sentiment is still present. However, the VNIndex remains to end above the important support level of 1,200 pts. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.
09
August
2Q23 PBT was up 9.8% yoy (to VND2,022bn) thanks to a strong growth of TOI. 2Q23 high provision expense (+534%yoy) was the key dampening factor to the profit growth. 2Q23 LC and LMC loan (+28.09%YTD, +4.7%qoq) was the driver of the total consumer loan (+13.22%YTD, -0.16%qoq). 2Q23 NIM (TTM) inched down to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% in 1Q23 and 4.1% in 2Q22) due to lower asset yield. NFI went up 85.3%yoy (to VND1,317bn) in 2Q23. The CIR ratio declined from 2Q22’s 38% to 2Q23’s 29%. 2Q23 NPL (2-5 group) and NPL (3-5 group) climbed to 6.0% (vs. 1Q23’s 5.2%) and 2.6% (vs. 1Q23’s 2.0%) respectively.
09
August
PVD posted its 2Q23 results with revenue of VND1.4tn (-6.7% yoy) due to lower revenue from well-related services and no revenue from leased rigs. While NPAT-MI turned green to VND161bn in 2Q23 vs a net loss of VND60bn in 2Q22 since PVD’s average jack-up (JU) day rate (USD75,000/day), utilization rate rose strongly yoy and booking a compensation of VND70bn for ending drilling contract with Valeura - Thailand.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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