01
August
We attended VIC's analyst meeting on Jul 29 to be covered with their strategy on Vinfast vision. We are highly regarding their fast-than-expected global presence in North Carolina. Even the gross margin plunged sharply in 2Q22, we think the market share is much more important.
29
July
July's figures show a more visible effect of the global slowdown on Vietnam's economy, especially in trade and production. Export turnover and industrial manufacture of export-oriented products have been hit by the output reduction from smartphone giants as a response to weaker demand concerns. However, domestic consumption continues recovering impressively and could be a shield for the economic growth in 3Q22.
29
July
HPG’ revenue increased 6.6% yoy to VND37,422bn in 2Q22 driven mainly by steel segment while agriculture and real estate segment revenue dropped 28% and 65% yoy, respectively. The 2Q22 NPAT-MI posted VND4,032bn, -58.5% yoy. The 6M22 results fulfil 45%/37% our Revenue/NPAT-MI forecasts. Although the result is below our forecast, we believe the mismatch is caused by the value of inventory provisions and forex losses.
29
July
Petro Vietnam Fertilizer (DPM) issued 2Q22’s business results on Jul 28, featuring a VND5,103bn (-14% qoq and +71% yoy) revenue and a VND1,291bn (-39% qoq and +86% yoy) net profit. We think DPM could leverage their sales volume in 2H22F due to 1) increasing domestic demand for the Winter-Spring crop, and 2) accelerating export to India in the Kharif season, the most important crop (Jun-Oct).
29
July
In Jul, the export of agricultural products was sluggish when most of the items decreased in both value and volume. Total agricultural plant export was USD1,671mn (-10% mom and +5% yoy). Surprisingly, rubber export value topped in total export turnover with 21% share, followed by rice (20%), coffee (17%), cashew (16%), vegetables (16%), and cassava (5%).
29
July
Long position on VN30F2208 near 1,220-1,225 pts area should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,215 pts level. (Hourly chart)
29
July
The VNIndex appears a breakout with high volume, implying a bullish market. Therefore, traders may open small long positions focusing on the leading sectors such as Banking.
29
July
Vinhomes recorded its 2Q22 sharp plunge of both the revenue and NPATMI, by 83.8/95.2% yoy, prompting 1H22 revenue to drop to VND13.4tn (-67.2% yoy) and NPATMI to tumble to VND5,048bn, (-68.3% yoy). Overall, 17,300 units has been sold with a VND92.5tn contracted sales, bringing unbilled booking value of VN129.3tn (VND28tn bulk sale) as of end-2Q22.
28
July
TCM posted modest business results in 2Q22 with revenue of VND1,049bn (+7.2% yoy, -6.5% qoq) and NPAT of VND55bn (-6.2% yoy, -25.1% qoq). After a challenging 2021 with negative earnings growth, in 1H22, the company recorded VND2,171bn (+12.7% yoy) in revenue and VND129bn in NPAT (+6.6% yoy).
28
July
NT2 posted stellar results in 2Q22 when its revenue (+66% yoy) and net profit (+13.9x yoy) were pegged high due to 1) increasing output when it reached 1,181mn kWh (+23.7% yoy) and 2) soaring power price in the context of material prices (gas, coal) and tight coal supplies. Despite harsh competition from hydropower and renewable energy in 2H22, we believe NT2 would maintain its strength as a reliable power supplier amid recovering power demand.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
Tiếng Việt
普通话
