研究中心

Last week, trading volume has recovered, recording at 83mn shares, up 20% WoW. Besides, trading value also surged, recording at VND40bn due to the active rebound phase across the major market. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have HPG as the underlying asset continued to attract the most of trading interest from both domestic and foreign investors.

Although the VNIndex closes above the 1,050-pts threshold, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to selling pressure at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.

Foreign demand continued to outweigh supply. Net buy value was USD17mn. With ETF flow, the inflow has come back across Vietnam as well as demand kept increasing. Inflow was USD27mn, tripled the previous week. Although there was the active inflow, demand focused only on Fubon ETF whilst other major ETFs such as VFMVN30 ETF, VFMVN Diamond, VNFin Lead, and KIM Growth VN30 ETF, FTSE Vietnam experienced the outflow or the insignificant flow of money.

Interest rates in the money market continued to slide for the second week after SBV’s rate cut decision. The overnight interbank rate made another sharp drop this week to hit the year low and even was approaching the ultra-low region in the pandemic. Besides, USDVND remains stable, while the global FX market experienced a stormy week under the banking crisis. We predict funding costs in the money market to be low more when the central bank tends to navigate its monetary tools to support domestic production and economic growth at this time.

With short-term movement, selling pressure is still active and the instrument still follows the flat period with unclear trend which is defined as the risky trading environment. Traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the accurate market swing and capture the trading point later. (Hourly chart)

The VNIndex loses consensus, showing the sideways. The index needs a breakout or breakdown to confirm the next trend.

The VNIndex shows the bullish signals as crossing the 1,050-pts for the five gaining sessions in a row. However, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to selling pressure at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.

With short-term movement, the instrument still follows the flat period with unclear trend which is defined as the risky trading environment. Traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the accurate market swing and capture the trading point later. (Hourly chart)

This week could provide a turning point in SBV’s monetary management as the central bank released a 100bps rate cut which could trigger a reversal of the interest rate path soon. The decision came out under the context that the global banking turmoil has increased significantly the possibility that Fed would be less hawkish in the March FOMC meeting. Interest rates in the money market responded strongly to SBV’s announcement with significant declines in interbank rates and G-bond yields. This week signals that SBV might switch the aim to economic performance when Fed’s rate hike trajectory could end sooner than expected and economic slowdown looms. Hence, we predict interest rates in the money market to be low in the next coming weeks.

With short-term movement, the instrument still follows the flat period with unclear trend which is defined as the risky trading environment. Traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the accurate market swing and capture the trading point later. (Hourly chart)