14
3月
Foreign demand came back, supply remained at 3-week average (USD230mn) and pushing the market to end up to be net bought. Net buy value was USD42mn. With ETF flow, the inflow come back across Vietnam, but demand is still weak. Inflow was USD5mn. Inflow was still active across foreign ETFs such as FTSE Vietnam and VanEck Vietnam as well as there was no remarkable outflow across Fubon ETF.
14
3月
Vinh Hoan delivered a preliminary VND758bn revenue, decreasing 29.5% yoy since the pangasius export shrunk by 46.9% yoy in Feb. The pangasius export volume decreased sharply by 26.4% yoy due to the lessened import of US and China markets.
14
3月
Domestic production capacity has exceeded current domestic demand by at least 40%. Due to the falling price of fertilizer, farmers are postponing purchasing fertilizer, that led to a very high inventory and low sales of fertilizer in 1Q23.
14
3月
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions are still not confirmed. Thus, traders should wait for more accurate trading signal in upcoming sessions (Hourly chart).
14
3月
The VNIndex shows a bullish trend due to closing above the 1,050-pts threshold. However, the selling pressure is still intact around high prices such as the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
14
3月
Last week, trading volume remained around the 4 weeks average (112mn shares), recording at 100mn shares. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB as the underlying asset continued to attract the most of trading interest from both domestic and foreign investors.
14
3月
In this case, the downside is still intact due to high selling pressure around 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
14
3月
On Mar 10, Hoa Sen Group (HSG) held the Annual General Meeting. The company sets conservative FY2023 guidance with 2 scenario due to the uncertainty from geopolitical conflicts and global high borrowing-rate environment.
15
2月
The money market this week shows us a soft liquidity condition attributable to lower demand for borrowing in the manufacturing and real estate sectors in the first months of 2023. Interest rates dropped notably, especially for short tenors, when SBV offered more T-bill contracts with a reduced winning rate. In addition, the G-bond yield recorded one more week of reduction likely due to the principle of an alternative channel to lending activity. SBV seems to pilot a reduction in funding costs for the money market in its attempt to lower the interest burden for local enterprises. However, a lower overnight rate resulted in a negative spread in interest rates between the local currency and USD, putting more pressure on the stability of foreign exchange in the coming weeks. Therefore, the development of the FX market will hint us SBVs’ stance in the near future.
15
2月
Bearish momentum is strong and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2302 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. (Hourly chart)
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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