17
3月
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions is not recommended. Thus, traders should wait for the short-term pullback on VN30F2304 to capture the better entry for long positions. (Hourly chart).
16
3月
Despite the strong recovery, the selling pressure is still intact around high prices such as the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
16
3月
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions on VN30F2303 is not recommended due to the expiration date. Thus, traders should wait for the short-term pullback on VN30F2304 to capture the better entry for long positions. (Hourly chart).
15
3月
The VNIndex crosses below the short-term moving average, showing a bearish market. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
15
3月
Total Feb steel sales volume posted 67,738 tonnes, increasing by 56.2% mom and 9.7% yoy. The 2M23 total sales volume came in at 111,108 tonnes, -28.6% yoy. In which, the steel coat volume declined 33.7% yoy to 85,285 tonnes and the steel pipes volume was down by 4.2% yoy to 25,823 tonnes.
15
3月
Total Feb steel sales volume posted 549,767 tonnes, decreasing by 30.6% yoy but increasing by 18.5% mom. The 2M23 total finished-product sale volume dropped significantly to 1,013,881 tonnes, -32.2% yoy. Of which, all products sale volumes declined due to high base in 2022.
15
3月
Total Feb steel sales volume posted 102,259 tonnes, dropping by 35.0% yoy but increasing 20.0% mom. The FY5M23 (Oct 2023-Feb 2023) total sale decreased 41.2% yoy to 527,462 tonnes as steel pipes volume declined 22.8% yoy to 121,279 tonnes and steel coat fell 45.2% yoy to 406,183 tonnes.
15
3月
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions are still not confirmed. Thus, traders should wait for more accurate trading signal in upcoming sessions (Hourly chart).
15
3月
Vietnam’s money market remained stable heading to the release of U.S. CPI next week, a decisive consideration for the Fed’s monetary rate decision in March. Overnight interbank was steady at 6% when SBV withdrew money from its counterparties for the sixth consecutive month under slowing credit activities in the first market. For the next week, we expect that raising concerns about the U.S. banking crisis following SVB’s failure would relieve Fed’s hawkishness and put downward pressure on USDVND.
15
3月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Feb 23, we observed an improvement in total sales volume on m-o-m basis.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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