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10
2月
Daily derivatives: Rebound phase is ended
Bearish momentum is strong and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2302 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. (Hourly chart)
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10
2月
Pharmaceutical – Note – [Non-rated] – OTC is still a fertile channel
The industry posted a VND12,048bn revenue (+7.1% yoy, +5,7% qoq) and a VND842bn NPAT (+6.0% yoy, +13.5% qoq) in 4Q22. The 4Q22 aggregated blended gross margin (GM) was 25% (+2.1%p yoy, +0.1%p qoq), while the net margin (NM) nearly stayed the same as 4Q21 with 7.2% (+0.2%p yoy, -0.2%p qoq).
10
2月
Market commentary: Selling pressure at the end of the session
The downside risk is still intact in the short term because selling pressure appears around the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
10
2月
F&B – Note – [Non-rated] – Expected improved gross margins in 1Q23F
The income of Vietnam workers was impacted by still sluggish export activities, thus we expect consumption of beer and dairy will continue to face the challenge in 1Q23F. However, we expect continuously the gross margins of listed dairy and beer companies to improve in 1Q23F due to enjoying cooling raw material prices. For sugar sector, we expect sales could grow up and improve gross margin due to higher selling prices.
09
2月
NT2 – Note – [BUY] – With flying colours
We introduce a favorable 2023F-24F earnings forecast with net profit of VND774bn (+6.1% yoy) and VND838bn (+8.3% yoy), respectively due to (1) waning La Nina effect, (2) rising power consumption demand and (3) tight coal supply problems. Thus, we recommend BUY in response to sustainable earnings growth prospects and favorable dividend yield.
09
2月
Agricultural – Brief – [Non-rated] – Not a good start
According to the GSO estimate, in Jan, the total agriculture export value was more than USD1.5bn (-10% mom, -8% yoy). Coffee brought the highest value of USD352mn (+12% mom, -5% yoy), and it accounted for 23% of total agriculture export turnover, followed by vegetables (19%) and rubber (17%).
09
2月
Market commentary: Pull trap?
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term because selling pressure appears around the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
09
2月
Daily derivatives: Bullish momentum is faded
For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term correction/consolidation phase on VN30F2302. (Hourly chart)
08
2月
Covered warrant 30 Jan-03 Feb: Trading interest focuses on Financials sector
Last week, trading volume ticked up across the covered warrant market. Besides, trading value also increased, recording at VND58bn, hitting the monthly high. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have HPG as the underlying asset kept attracting the most of trading interest from domestic investors whilst foreign interest focused on STB Cws.
08
2月
Market commentary: Selling pressure around 1,100-pts zone
In the short term, selling pressure appears around the 1,100-pts threshold. That implies the downside risk is intact. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
Featured Articles
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.