11
4月
Daily derivatives: Bullish swing is paused
Long VN30F2304 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level. (Hourly chart)
11
4月
Long VN30F2304 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level. (Hourly chart)
11
4月
Last week, trading volume remained near the previous week, recording at 57mn shares. However, trading value remained at high level, recording at VND54bn due to the active rebound phase across the major market. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have HPG as the underlying asset continued to attract the most of trading interest from both domestic and foreign investors.
11
4月
TNG posted a positive Mar performance with revenue of VND561bn (+35.8% yoy, +50% mom). Nonetheless, the rosy Mar could not save 1Q23. Specifically, 1Q23 revenue came in at VND1,333bn (+6% yoy but -12% qoq). Therefore, the company fulfilled 18% of its 2023F planned revenue in 1Q23. The 1Q23 revenue growth is largely attributable to the US market.
11
4月
Based on the third losing session, the VNIndex shows downside risks. Notably, the index closes below the 10-period moving average. That means the signals lose consensus. Hence, traders should be careful if the market still shows negative signals.
10
4月
Based on the second losing session, the VNIndex shows downside risks in the short term. The signals lose consensus. Hence, traders should be careful if the market still shows negative signals.
10
4月
Long VN30F2304 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level. (Hourly chart)
10
4月
The VNIndex needs more bullish signals to confirm the uptrend because the signals lose consensus.
10
4月
Average daily trading value (ADTV) kept dropping to VND11,332bn (-18.3% qoq, -63.7% yoy) in 1Q23. The quarterly number of new accounts in 1Q23 marked the lowest since 1Q21 with 140,024 new accounts opening (-50.7% qoq, -79.3% yoy). VPS ranked 1st position in the HSX’s brokerage with 15.67% market share, +0.86%p qoq in 1Q23. This was also the highest market share in company history. The runner up was SSI with 11.53%, +1.57%p qoq.
05
4月
The money market this week continued to incorporate SBV’s recent pivot in monetary stance. Funding costs for interbank loans remain relatively low under the modest growth in the first lending market. More notably, the second round of rate cuts came out after depressing economic release for the first quarter with a focus on lowering deposit rates. In this way, the monetary authority could facilitate commercial banks to reduce lending rates in the first market. Despite a stronger pivot signal, the FX market reacts mildly, providing SBV confidence to follow policies to support economic growth. Therefore, we predict that interest rates in the money market to remain low for the next few weeks
05
4月
After the VNIndex rises for the ninth consecutive gaining session, the VNIndex shows an uptrend in the short term. Therefore, traders may open small long positions. However, the selling pressure appears at a high level of around 1,100-pts. Therefore, traders should be careful if the market shows negative.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.