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1Q23 shows the negative impact of the weak global demand on Vietnam’s economic activities, with a slowdown and even a reduction in export-related sectors. The export and export-oriented production saw significant declines in the first quarter of 2023, and the fruitful consumption in the first normalized Tet could not reverse the slowdown. On the upside, we saw improved industrial production, less severe trade performance, a tourism return, and well-controlled inflation in March, providing hope that economic activities would accelerate in the next quarter.

VN30F2305 is testing the 1,050 pts zone with no valid trading signal. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the valid trading signal on VN30F2305 (Hourly chart)

In the short term, the VNIndex still closes below the 50-period moving average, showing a downtrend. That means the downside risk is still intact. Hence, traders should be careful and reduce long positions.

Long positions on VN30F2304 should be closed and new trading positions should be stalked on upcoming contract (VN30F2305). (Hourly chart)

On Apr 18, we attended AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. What we feel is vague lies in the right issuance plan up to a VND600bn receipt in 2H23F to refinance or shore up the working capital demand for Chau Duc industrial /real estate. Given the abundant cash balance and flattish yoy growth of net profit in 2023, we think the trade of the diluted share risk for investment growth prospect is not justified. Based on management's guidance of 2023F profit, 12MF PE of 15.3 times trailed the 2-year median of 15.1x, higher than the average TTM VNINDEX of 9-11x. We believe this premium is not reasonable in light of its flattish net profit growth and risky net gearing.

The VNIndex closes below the 50-period moving average, showing a downtrend. That means the downside risk is still intact. Hence, traders should be careful and reduce long positions.

Total Mar steel sales volume posted 107,020 tonnes, dropping by 33.0% yoy but increasing 4.7% mom. Steel coat volume made up 80.8% of the Mar total sales volume at 86,505 tonnes, +2.7% mom but -28.4% yoy.

Total Mar steel sales volume posted 83,590 tonnes, increasing by 23.4% mom but -17.8% yoy. The 3M23 total sales volume came in at 194,698 tonnes, -24.3% yoy.

Total Mar steel sales volume posted 567,651 tonnes, decreasing by 39.1% yoy but increasing by 3.3% mom. The total Mar domestic sales volume rised by 0.9% mom to 487,134 tonnes.

Long positions on VN30F2304 should be closed and new trading positions should be stalked on upcoming contract (VN30F2305). (Hourly chart)