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Tiếng Việt
19
4月
Market commentary: Slight recovery
Despite the second recovery, the downside risk is still intact because of high selling pressure at a high level. Hence, traders should be careful if the market still shows negative signals.
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17
4月
FMC – In-depth [BUY +17%]- The sustainable value chain is key
Sao Ta Foods secured in the Top 3 Vietnamese shrimp exporters with USD217.7mn export value (in 2022). Although our outlook on the shrimp industry in 2023 would slow down, we believe Sao Ta Food could increase 5.8% yoy revenue and +16.4% yoy NPAT in 2023. In the other hand, the capacity increase and farming system expansion would be the long-term drivers. As such, we initiate FMC with a BUY rating on stable growth, sustainable strategy in long-term prospect .
17
4月
GAS – In-depth – [BUY +18.8%] – High long-term growth expectation
We initiate our coverage on PV GAS (GAS VN) with a BUY rating and target price of VND117,700 implying a 18.8% upside by using a DCF (70%) and PE (30%) methodology. In DCF method, we calculate the fair value of VND122,500/share with implied long-term growth of 4.0%, and WACC of 11.5%. With PE method, our target price is based on an average 2023-25F P/E of 18x. GAS is our top pick in oil & gas sector thanks to strong growth potential based on the high demand for natural gas and LNG in Vietnam. The risks of GAS comprise a drop of oil prices and delaying projects.
17
4月
PVD – In-depth [BUY +37.8%] – Stepping into a new cycle from 2023F
We initiate our coverage on PVD with a BUY rating and target price of VND28,850 implying a 37.8% upside by using a DCF (70%) and PB (30%) methodology. In DCF method, we calculate the fair value of VND29,400/share with implied long-term growth of 3.0%, and WACC of 12.3%. Our target price is based on an average 2023-25F PB of 1.0x arose from PVD’s firm position to benefit from rising demand for drilling in Southeast markets. The most significant risk of PVD is a drop of oil prices weighting on day rates and outlook.
17
4月
Oil & Gas – [OVERWEIGHT] – Sector In-depth – New normal, new cycle
We initiate an Overweight rating on Oil & Gas industry as we see multiple tailwinds in the middle-term and long-term outlook due to expectations of reactive upstream and midstream projects. We also have BUY ratings on PV Drilling (PVD VN) and PV GAS (GAS VN). PVD is expected to turn around and could enjoy high growth of earnings in the next 3 years due to higher jack-up rates, meanwhile, GAS is the largest listed company in the sector with strong finance ratios and many planning midstream projects to supply natural gas pipelines and import LNG to fill high power demand of Vietnam economy.
17
4月
Market commentary: High profit-taking
The downside risk is still intact because of the sharp losing session. Hence, traders should be careful if the market still shows negative signals.
17
4月
Daily derivatives: Selling pressure ticks up
Long positions on VN30F2304 should be closed and new trading positions should be stalked on upcoming contract (VN30F2305). (Hourly chart)
17
4月
Seafood – In-depth – Shrimp market: Falling demand in 2023
Vietnam is one of the top 3 largest shrimp exporting countries in the world, making up about 10.1% market share of the global shrimp exporting industry value. In 2023, shrimp market was projected to slow down. Yet, we believe that the Vietnamese shrimp industry's growth rate will increase till 2030.
17
4月
Chart of the day: Selling pressure comes back
Selling pressure near 1,080 pts zone is active. The rebound phase could be faded. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the reaction of the Index near 1,050 pts zone.
14
4月
Daily derivatives: Demand starts to be faded
Long positions on VN30F2304 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level. (Hourly chart)
Featured Articles
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.