28
4月
Daily derivatives: No sign of demand
Short VN30F2305 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,050 pts level. (Hourly chart)
28
4月
Short VN30F2305 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,050 pts level. (Hourly chart)
26
4月
In 1Q23, Sao Ta Foods posted VND1,008bn revenue (-24% yoy), which was mainly dragged down by -28.4% yoy of shrimp export segment. Meanwhile, NPAT increased by 15.1% yoy due to low SG&A expenses. Despite the uncertainties of industry outlook, We believe that the export to Japan and EU market could be the spotlight to support FMC earnings in 2023. We maintain BUY recommendations for FMC shares with a target price of VND49,100.
26
4月
Liquidity pressure in the money market cooled down this week when the short-term mismatch in the TGA auction was partly resolved. On the other hand, 10-year G-bond yield and average deposit rates from SOBs were mainly unchanged after reducing significantly a few weeks ago, implying that the impact of recent policy rate cuts was fading and market participants likely await more signals from Vietnam’s central bank. Besides, USDVND has rebounded slightly when hitting SBV’s buying level.
26
4月
Based on the losing session, the VNIndex shows a bearish market due to closing below the 50-period moving average. That means the downside risk is still intact. Hence, traders should be careful and reduce long positions.
26
4月
We tuned in to VIC’s analyst meeting on Apr 25 which featured the strategical visibility on Vinfast and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. The heightened debt is raising concerns about its refinancing capacity amid the increasingly costlier borrowing rate (57.5% of total debt is a floating interest rate).VinFast is signaling an aggressive plan of investment outlay. However, the company has yet to announce the capex demand in 2023F.
26
4月
We attended VRE’s AM session held on Apr 24th. The company articulates the business plan, coming out with optimistic guidance with (1) base case: VND10,350bn revenue (+40% yoy) and VND4,680bn (+68% yoy), and (2) optimistic case: VND11,500bn revenue (+57% yoy) and VND5,200 NPAT (+87% yoy).
26
4月
Short VN30F2305 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,050 pts level. (Hourly chart)
25
4月
Last week, trading volume remained near the previous week, recording at 49mn shares. However, trading value dropped, recording at VND37bn due to the decrease in price of underlying stocks. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have HPG as the underlying asset continued to attract the most of trading interest from both domestic and foreign investors.
25
4月
On April 24, Vicem Ha Tien Cement (HT1) held the Annual General Meeting. The company presented full-year 2022 results as well as the FY2023F business plan. The BOD expects that cement industry will be improved while demand is still sluggish in the first 6 months due to the negative impact of property and bond markets.
25
4月
The company revealed that 1Q23 NPAT strongly slumped by 81.5% yoy and 78.8% qoq to about VND10bn due to the low consumption of luxury cars. 1Q23 earnings were contributed mainly by services segment
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.