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The money market experienced significant fluctuations this week as several factors contributed to the volatility. The overnight interbank rate reached its lowest point in two years, while the widening interest rate gap between the US dollar and Vietnamese dong added pressure on the exchange rate. G-bond yields diverged between primary and secondary markets, and OMO remained inactive. Although credit growth showed positive momentum by the end of June, abundant liquidity persisted. Looking ahead, we anticipate further depreciation of the Vietnamese dong, adding challenges for Vietnam monetary authority to stimulate the economy.

The market maintains an uptrend with improved liquidity, shows positive signals. In the short term, the VNIndex has tested the 1,140-pts threshold. Therefore, investors should hold a long position and wait for the next signals.

On Jun 28, State Bank of Vietnam issued Circular 06/2023/TT-NHNN amending Circular 39/20216-TT-NHNN on the lendinig activities with more prudent control and stricter requirement. We view positively since it helps enhance the credit quality control of banking systems and efficiency use of capital flow to economy. Besides, the new circular accommodates the deferred payment foreign loans.

Outflow across ETFs in Vietnam came back, recorded at USD8mn. In general, the flow of money across Vietnam is weak in the previous week. Therefore, there is a high probability for outflow to still be present in the upcoming weeks.

The market comes back to a gaining session with the VNIndex still ends above the 10-period moving average, shows positive signals. However, the downside risk is still present. Therefore, investors should hold a long position and wait for the next signals.

Long positions on VN30F2307 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,100 pts level (Hourly chart). For new positions, traders could open new long positions after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,100 pts level (Hour chart).

According to the GSO estimate, in Jun, the total agriculture export value slightly increased to USD2.2bn (+5% mom, +21% yoy). Vegetable keeps being the highest value exported product with USD723mn (+45% mom, +189% yoy), and it accounted for 17% of total agriculture export turnover (+9%p mom), followed by rice (17%, -8%p mom) and coffee (17%, -3%p mom). In which, vegetable export to China in May-23 quintupled yoy to USD482mn, the figure also doubled mom.

The VNIndex remains in a medium-term uptrend despite a short-term downtrend, and it is expected to rebound quickly.

The PDR’s management held the AGM 2023 on Jun 30 to address multiple key concerns about the debt duty coverage, the business plan. Funding demand is aggressive and controversial and we feel hope the launching plan of projects. PDR market price rebounds steeply from the Nov outbreak but we think that this is not enough and PDR deserves more.

Although the market has a second adjustment, the VNIndex still ends above the 1,100-pts threshold and the 50-period moving average. This shows the uptrend is still present. Therefore, investors should hold long position and wait for the next signals.