研究中心

The development in the money market was mainly under the influence of SBV’s rate cut decision. Specifically, to improve economic performance, SBV, on Friday, extended the series of policy rate cuts for the fourth time this year, leading to notable reductions in various interest rates. The overnight interbank rate dropped below the 1% level for the first time since the pandemic, the 10-year G-bond yield recorded the most significant reduction in seven recent weeks, and USDVND climbed by 0.20% compared to last week. For the next week, we predict that the low-interest rate environment, especially for short-term tenors, will be preserved unless the economy records visible improvement.

Although the market has a losing session, the VNIndex ends above the 50-period moving average. The uptrend is still positive but still needs more signals for confirmation. Therefore, investors should observe the next movements of the market before making decisions.

Inflow came back to SEA, recorded at USD34mn. Accordingly, inflow across Indonesia’s, Malaysia’s, and Singapore’s major ETFs increased strongly along with selling pressure at Thailand's steeped reduction. Besides, inflow on ETFs in Vietnam backed and recorded at a high level.

Due to the unfavorable risk/reward ratio, traders wait for the minor correction is needed to have good entry point (Hourly chart).

Due to the unfavorable risk/reward ratio, traders wait for the minor correction is needed to have good entry point (Hourly chart).

Although the market maintains a slowdown along high liquidity, the VNIndex still ends above the 10-period moving average, showing the signals lose consensus. Accordingly, more signals are needed to confirm the market trend. Therefore, investors should observe the next movements of the market before making decisions investors.

The VNIndex shows an uptrend in the short term because the index closes above the 1,100-pts with high liquidity. Therefore, investors should hold long positions.

New trading positions should be stalked on VN30F2307 when the short-term consolidation phase is formed. (Hourly chart)

Vietnam stock market shows some positive signals thanks to the improvement in FDI and the expansion of retail sales. FDI has increased since May, indicating a recovery in inflows as global businesses expanded their production capacities. Additionally, retail sales have witnessed growth, driven mainly by the influx of Chinese tourists following the reopening of tourism. We expect the VNIndex may reach 1,300-1,350 pts in 2H23.

The escalating US inventory-sales ratio will likely have adverse effects on US import demand, subsequently impacting the export performance of other countries, including Vietnam. The higher the inventory-sales buildup, the lower the US import orders from abroad, which in turn dampens the export growth of trading partners. Given Vietnam's dependence on the US as a major importer, the negative relationship between the US inventory-sales ratio and Vietnam's export is of particular concern. Monitoring the US inventory-sales ratio becomes crucial for assessing its potential impact on Vietnam's export-driven economy.