16
6月
Despite the second adjustment session, the VNIndex still ends above the 50-period moving average. The uptrend is still positive but still needs more signals for confirmation. Therefore, investors should observe the next movements of the market before making decisions.
15
6月
The VNIndex crosses the 1,120-pts threshold along the liquidity high level, implying a strong uptrend market in the future. Therefore, investors should open long positions.
15
6月
Total May steel sales volume posted 619,165 tonnes, increasing by 5.6% yoy and 15.6% mom thanks to the strong export. The total May domestic sales volume diminished by 19.1% yoy but upped 3.1% mom to 390,548 tonnes.
15
6月
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment swelled to USD2.92bn (+14.8% mom but fell 8.0% yoy) in May. The accumulated export value was disappointed again with US12,628bn (-16% yoy), weighting our dim hope of recovery. Despite the industry export value downturned in Apr (total industry export growth of USD2.54bn, -3.3% mom, -19.4% yoy), the listed companies diverged: VGG (USD37.74mn, +14.71% mom, -22.09% yoy, TNG, USD31.58mn (+15.73% mom, +27.28% yoy). GIL was not out of the wood yet (USD1.38mn, -15.38% mom, -93.42% yoy).
15
6月
According to Customs, the total May fertilizer export volume was nearly 155,000 tonnes (+17.5% mom, -3.13% yoy), equivalent to USD57mn (+17.36% mom, -46.32% yoy). The 5M23 Vietnam export pulled back in both volume 691,824 tonnes (-15.53% yoy) and value with USD289mn, -50.3% yoy. Observing the domestic market, urea price was trading around VND10,100/kg (+9% mom, -41% yoy) in May. The average urea price hovered around VND10,300/kg (-39.6% yoy) in 5M23. We maintain Neutral rating.
15
6月
Total May steel sales volume posted 77,447 tonnes, increasing 0.2% mom and decreasing 8.9% yoy. The 5M23 total sales volume came in at 349,414 tonnes, -19.8% yoy. In which, the steel coat volume declined 22.1% yoy to 286,699 tonnes and the steel pipes volume was down by 7.0% yoy to 62,715 tonnes.
15
6月
Total May steel sales volume posted 127,489 tonnes, rising by 5.1% yoy but dropping 1.9% mom. The FY8M23 (Oct 2023-Feb 2023) total sale decreased 34.1% yoy to 891,963 tonnes as steel pipes volume declined 21.0% yoy to 185,976 tonnes and steel coat fell 36.9% yoy to 705,987 tonnes.
15
6月
Long positions on VN30F2306 should not be closed and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,080 pts level (Hourly chart).
15
6月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During May 23, we observed an impressive export volume (+51.9% yoy, +29.7% mom) while domestic sales volume showed an uptick of 5% mom
14
6月
Long positions on VN30F2306 should not be closed and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,080 pts level (Hourly chart).
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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