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Despite the pickup in June lending performance, the excessive liquidity in the banking system persists mainly due to the government’s urge for more dovish actions from SBV to bolster economic activities and the abnormal value of bond issuance from banks in recent weeks. Hence, the ON interbank rate hit its three-year low at 0.07%. At the same time, the bright U.S. inflation readings help alleviate the upward pressure on USDVND over the week. Overall, we expect a further dovish movement from SBV in the upcoming weeks to support economic growth when the slowdown in U.S. inflation becomes more visible.

The VNIndex remains in a medium- and short-term uptrend thanks to high liquidity and the breakout for the 1,150-pts threshold.

Long positions on VN30F2307 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,140 pts level (Hourly chart).

The stock market has 6th consecutive increase session with high liquidity. Additionally, the market appears to demand at lower price levels, indicating positive signals. However, the downside risk may present around the 1,180-1,200 pts zone. Therefore, investors should hold long positions and wait for the next signal.

In this quarterly review, the VN30Index is expected to add SSB and SHB, while remove NVL and PDR. We expect the local ETFs, which use the VN30Index as a benchmark index, to buy SHB and SSB the most with 18.6 million shares and 13.9 million shares. On the sell side, NVL and VPB will be sold heavily with 9.0 million shares and 3.5 million shares.

The stock market remains to gain and surpasses the 1,150-1,160 pts zone which is the significant support zone in the downtrend in 2022. However, this is also the goal point of the rectangle pattern that form before. Therefore, investors should hold a long position and wait for the next signal.

Long positions on VN30F2307 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,110 pts level (Hourly chart).

Long positions on VN30F2307 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,100 pts level (Hourly chart).

Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.

The stock market still shows positive signals, as the VNIndex remains to increase and ends above the 10-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open long positions.