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Tiếng Việt
17
5月
Daily derivatives: Volatile trading environment
As the bearish momentum is still strong and there is no favorable trading point, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
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17
5月
Market commentary: Energy in the spotlight
Market sentiment has become still pessimistic in the short term because of the bearish market. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
16
5月
Power – Brief – Will Vinacomin keep its promise?
In Apr 2022, electricity production was 22.6bn kWh (-3.5% mom, +1.9% yoy). Hydropower is the biggest beneficiary (+26.7% yoy) in the context of rising fuel oil and coal prices, coupled with tight coal supplies when coal and gas thermal power output sharply plunged. Vinacomin pledged to compensate the not-yet-delivered 1Q22 contracted coal volume in the remaining quarters, equivalent to 0.8mn tonnes. It promised to supply enough coal in 2Q22 to EVN’s power plants while the total value of imported coal reached its peak.
16
5月
Market commentary: New low
Based on the second crash, market sentiment has become pessimistic. Therefore, the downside risk is still intact due to high volatility. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
16
5月
Chart of the day: Bearish market
The VNIndex confirmed the downtrend due to the confirmation signals for trending indicators and volume.
16
5月
Daily derivatives: Approaching the medium-term demand zone
As the bearish momentum is still strong and there is no favorable trading point, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
13
5月
NVL-Brief- Unresolved fear of credit crunch
On May 12, we participated in NVL’s analyst meetings which briefs the presale growth, sales plan and the bottlenecks in credit quota for homebuyers’ mortgage. While we are still upbeat about the unrivaled monetization of NVL’s blockbuster land bank in satellite cities, we could not be relieved of its relentlessly rising net debt. Furthermore, the credit unavailability allocated to developers and homebuyers not only hinders the homebuyers’ purchase decisions but also jeopardise NVL’s fund demand to pay due debts. Give
13
5月
Daily derivatives: Heading to the lower area
New short position is risky due to the increase of volatility level and unfavorable risk/reward ratio. Traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
13
5月
Market commentary: Retest last bottom
Based on the crash, the downside risk is still intact due to high volatility. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
12
5月
Steel – Sector Note – Temporary material cost retreat amid tension
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 1Q22, we saw aggregated revenue growth persisted with double digits while NPATMI growth was muted due to the higher base seen in 1Q21 and thinner yoy gross margin marred by input cost inflation. In 2Q22, we expect to see a slower pace in domestic demand revival in 2Q22F due to the sharp steel price rise in 4M22. The temporary global economic weakness caused by COVID-19 restrictions in China eased the prices of steel products and some input materials. Therefore, companies, especially flat steel exporters, can consider the temporary decline as an opportunity for lower-cost inventories.
Featured Articles
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.