19
5月
The April performance witnessed the weak domestic demand for construction steel. The 4M22 performance witnessed the revival in domestic market, however, the high steel price slowed down the revival pace in April.
19
5月
Despite the bullish trend, the liquidity is still low level, implying the bullish trend is not confirmed. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
19
5月
HSG witnessed the slightly weaker performance in FY7M2022 on year-on-year basis caused by weak sales volume in first 4 months of 2022. Total Apr steel sales volume posted 175,144 tonnes, increasing by 9.7% mom but decreasing by 18.2% yoy.
19
5月
Although there is the intraday rebound phase, demand needs time to be accumulated. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal which would come after the consolidation/fluctuation phase.
18
5月
Although there is the intraday rebound phase, demand needs time to be accumulated. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal which would provide the favorable risk/reward ratio.
18
5月
Food and beverage consumption recovered continually in 1Q22, albeit to a different level in each sector. Gross margin (GM) of the dairy sector narrowed in 4Q21 due to weak growth of the selling price could not offset the strong rise of input material prices. The dairy sector’s GM subdued by 2.8%p yoy while VNM’s GM plunged strongly by 3.1%p yoy in 1Q22 due to imported milk powder prices raised sharply by 30-40% yoy in 1Q22. On the other hand, the beer sector gross margin expanded by 1.7%p yoy to 27% in 1Q22. SAB’s GM improved by 0.6%p yoy in 1Q22 due to high APS although raw material prices such as aluminum and malting barley hiked. Reopening fully all industries to prompt household incomes to continue to grow in 2Q22F, thus, F&B companies could increase selling prices more easily to offset the spike in raw materials. Therefore, we expect an expanding gross margin in 2Q22F for dairy and brewing listed companies due to cooling commodity prices and fully benefit from higher selling prices.
18
5月
Total consumption volume edged up 4.9% yoy to 63.03bn kWh thanks to economy recovery. 1Q22 aggregate revenue of 38 listed power makers jumped 16.3% yoy, while NPAT post-MI hiked 69.9% in which hydropower was bright star. Input material such as Newcastle coal & Singapore fuel oil prices spiked 187% yoy and 49% yoy. Many coal-fired power operated under their capacities when the ability of Vinacomin to supply enough coal for power plants in 2Q22F is still unknown. Thus, we believe hydropower makers will be the biggest beneficiaries in 2Q22F.
18
5月
According to Insurance Association of Viet Nam (IAV) published 3M22 market firgures on May 16th 2022. Total insurance premium accumulated in 1Q22 was pegged VND58,485bn (+14.6% yoy). In which, life insurance premium increased by 14.7% to VND 17,082bn; non-life insurance premium also surged by 14.6% to VND38,403bn.
18
5月
After the strong recovery, the market sentiment has become optimistic. However, the liquidity is still low level, implying the bullish trend is not confirmed. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
17
5月
Last week, trading activity increased across the covered warrant market, up 25% WoW. Besides, foreign demand came back, the market has turned around to be net bought after being net sold for 8 consecutive months. Notably, covered warrants which have FPT as the underlying asset has attracted most of trading activity for 5 consecutive weeks.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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