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12
5月
Daily derivatives: Approaching the solid sell zone
As the bearish momentum is still strong and there is no favorable trading point, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
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12
5月
Market commentary: Retest 1,300-pts threshold
Despite the second recovery, the downside risk is still intact as high volatility. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
11
5月
VNM-Brief-HOLD-Light at the end of the tunnel
On May 10, we tuned in to 1Q22 VNM’s analyst meeting which features its 1Q22 operational updates and sheds some lights on rebounding revenue and expanding gross margin. VNM pegged domestic market revenue at 11,658 (+ 4.3% yoy) contributed by parent’s domestic revenue growth of 3.5% yoy (VND10,234bn) and MCM’s revenue growth of 8.6% yoy (VND675bn) in 1Q22. The company stockpiled raw materials until Aug at a costlier price. Given the prices of imported milk powder forward contracts are cooling down, VNM expects to benefit at least from 3Q22F. We maintain a HOLD rating underpinned by a sluggish outlook in 2022F-23F
11
5月
Market commentary: Banking makes market gains
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact as high volatility. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
11
5月
Covered warrant 04-06 May: FPT absorbs most trading activity for 4 consecutive weeks
Last week, trading activity dropped across the covered warrant market. Foreign trading activity also dropped and the market continued to end up to be net sold. However, foreign selling pressure has start to slow down remarkably. Notably, covered warrants which have FPT as the underlying asset has attracted most of trading activity for 4 consecutive weeks.
11
5月
Daily derivatives: Intraday rebound phase
As the bearish momentum is still strong and there is no favorable trading point, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
10
5月
Daily derivatives: Lower low is formed
As the bearish momentum is still strong and there is no favorable selling point, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
10
5月
Market commentary: Sell-off
In the short term, the market sentiment has become pessimistic as the downside risk is still intact. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
10
5月
Fertilizer – Sector earning note – 1Q22
Based on our estimate, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of 24 listed fertilizer producers jumped 71.2% yoy (VND30.9tn), while aggregated NPATMI climbed 7.9x yoy (VND6.8tn). In 1Q22, total consumption volume sustained but export skyrocketed with 510,000 tonnes, +47% yoy/+31% qoq, equivalent to 44%/40% of the total export in 2020-21. We view the proposal to impose an export tax of 5% from the Ministry of Finance could weigh down some exporters. However, 5% is an insignificant threshold to loom the export where exporters could gain a lucrative gap between the export and domestic prices. Furthermore, when the Summer-Autumn crop comes, the domestic demand could bounce to offset the loss from export constrain if any.
10
5月
Seafood – Sector brief – April seafood export updates
In Apr 2022, prelim seafood export value recorded USD1,056mn (+41% yoy and + 4% mom), driven by shrimp product with USD406mn (+35% yoy and +2% mom), pangasius product with USD297mn (+105% yoy a nd +11% mom).Vietnam’s prelim seafood export to US market increased to USD266mn (+79% yoy. +16% mom), China market also surged by 108% yoy and 12% mom to USD216mn in Apr.
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24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.