23
5月
Consolidation phase has stepped in which provides time for demand accumulation phase. Thus, traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal which would come after the consolidation/fluctuation phase.
23
5月
The downside risk is still intact in the short term due to low liquidity. That means the bullish trend is not confirmed. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
23
5月
The downtrend is active and the current rebound phase is not strong enough to fade the selling pressure above which means volatility level would increase in upcoming sessions. In this case, investors should decrease the current positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate trading signal which would come after the demand accumulation phase.
23
5月
Excluding Vimedimex with a 50.1% yoy revenue drop since VMD specializes in drug distribution, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of 28 listed pharma producers climbed by 11.8% yoy, while aggregated net profit surged by 27.4% yoy. Looking forward to 2Q22F, demand for drugs could revive both through ETC (the drug channel for treatment, which patients can only buy at hospitals) and OTC (drugstores) when everything is back to normal. The demand for vitamins, antibiotics, and functional foods will expect to increase. The need for specific drugs used in hospitals will soon climb as hospitals start accepting patients again
20
5月
Although the credit growth still outperformed the deposit growth in April, the liquidity pressure in the money market to meet regulatory ratios has eased, mainly attributed to the significant decreases in short-term interbank rates. April also witnessed significant selling pressure in the government bond market amid higher inflationary pressure and foreign government bond yields. We predict that this development of the fixed income market will continue in the next month.
20
5月
Consolidation phase has stepped in which provides time for demand accumulation phase. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal which would come after the consolidation/fluctuation phase.
20
5月
The reopening of all industries led oil & gas consumption to grow in 1Q22. Based on our collection, the 1Q22 aggregate earnings growth edged up 35.1% yoy in 1Q22 vs 31.7% yoy growth in 4Q21. Otherwise, the revenue growth rate in 1Q22 was still brisk at around 66.7% yoy thanks to the higher oil prices. Average selling prices were the biggest impact on revenue growth engines, in our view. The high global oil prices will lead earnings of midstream and downstream such as GAS, and BSR to grow strongly in 2Q22F.
20
5月
Despite the bullish market in the short term, the liquidity is still low level, implying the bullish trend is not confirmed. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
19
5月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Apr 22, we observed the domestic revival pause caused by high steel prices. We also expect the temporary price retreat will end soon after COVID-19 restrictions ease in China.
19
5月
The April performance witnessed the growth in export volume on year-on-year basis, helping export channel to remain as the key growth driver in 4M22. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 19,331 tonnes (-18.2% mom, -35.3% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 13,756 tonnes (-16.5% mom and -35.3% yoy).
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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