31
5月
Market ended up to be net sold. Selling activity was absorbed the most by Financials, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples whilst demand focused Consumer Discretionary. With ETF flow, money inflow across Vietnam remained. Net inflow was USD32mn. The positive flow of money was mainly absorbed by VFMVN Diamond and Fubon FTSE Vietnam.
31
5月
Long position on VN30F2206 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,250 pts level. For better entry, traders could wait for the minor pullback and capture the long positions near 1,300 pts level and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
31
5月
The VNIndex maintains its uptrend because of (1) closing above the 20-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. Therefore, traders may open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
30
5月
The VNIndex confirmed the bullish market because of (1) closing above the 10-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. Therefore, traders may be open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
30
5月
The VNIndex forms the uptrend thanks to some bullish signals. Traders may open small long positions on leading stocks. However, the downside risk is still intact in the long term, hence, they should avoid buying on margin.
30
5月
Long VN30F2206 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,250 pts level. For better entry, traders could wait for the minor pullback and capture the long positions near 1,300 pts level and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
30
5月
S&P recently upgraded Vietnam’s sovereign credit rating to BB+, the highest level in the speculative-grade group. This development opens the chance for Vietnam to reach the investment-grade level soon, implying potential inflows from foreign investors through the portfolio investment, especially in the government debt market. Indonesia’s success in attracting foreign capital into the capital market by showing investors its commitment to a transparent and sustained capital market was a valuable lesson for Vietnam.
30
5月
Based on our estimates, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of listed T&G and yarn companies perked up 32.6%/22.6% yoy while NPATMI soared 71.5%/ 22.3% yoy, respectively. Top companies include VGG (+550% yoy), HTG (+247.6% yoy), and VGT (+102% yoy). 2Q is a typical peak period when production begins for the next fall/winter season. Inventory assets swelled 24.5% yoy as of end-1Q22 in T&G companies, and this demonstrates healthy conditions among clients. Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover in Apr 2022 sustains the revival growth of 28.4% yoy and 3.6% mom to USD3.1bn. Revenue recovery could ramp up in 2Q22F for T&G segments.
27
5月
Despite the contraction, the VNIndex shows some bullish signals because of (1) closing above the 10-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. That means the uptrend begins to form in the short term. Therefore, traders may be open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
27
5月
The instrument is expected to fluctuate within 1,200-1,300 pts zone due to the low probability for piercing 1,200 pts level as well as breaking 1,300 pts zone accurately. Thus, traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal which would come after the consolidation/fluctuation phase.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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