研究中心

Economic figures in April suggest a bright picture for the economic acceleration in the second quarter when the growth of many economic activities returns to pre-pandemic levels. Export strengthens its upward momentum with impressive growths of electronics products thanks to the high external demand. Therefore, the domestic production recorded a growth rate at a near double-digit level with the impressive performance from the export-oriented industries group. Regarding the domestic demand, the growth rate of retail sales returned to the double-digit level, mainly reflecting more optimistic domestic consumers under the fading fear of COVID-19 and the re-opening to foreign visitors. On the downside, although CPI kept higher, speed has slowed and was under the government’s target of 4%.

Demand is still weak near 1,400 pts zone as well as selling pressure is not faded. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for the accurate trading point.

Despite the recovery from last Monday, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to pessimistic sentiment. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.

On April 28, we attended BCM’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. On hope for a robust revival, BCM guides net profit to be VND2,888bn, +98% yoy. The company maintains a cash dividend of 8% at par in 2022F. Based on management's guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 28.8 times, nearly the same as the 1-year median of 28.8x and 12MF PB is 4.1x, slightly higher than the 1-year median of 3.5x. The valuation seems lucrative in light of a rosy trajectory.

On April 28, MSN held an AGM briefing on its 2022F guidance, 1Q22 business results, and long-term expansion plans. MSN sets 2022F guidance with a Revenue VND90tn – 100tn (from +1% to 11.3% yoy), and NPATMI VND4.8tn – 6.2tn (from -44% to -27.6% yoy). In 2021, MSN recorded a one-off gain from divesting from the feed business. The guidance represents a growth of 22% and 36% yoy, compared to VND74.2tn (excluding feed segment revenue) in FY2021. In FY2021, revenue contribution from only consumer businesses (excluding feed and MHT) was 68%, which is expected to improve to 85% yoy in FY2022. NPAT Pre-MI is expected to be within the range of VND6.9tn and VND8.5tn, a growth of 82% to 124% yoy compared to VND3.8tn in 2021 (which excludes one-time gains/losses and feed segment contribution in 2021).

The company achieved a revenue of VND1,577bn (+18% yoy) and a NPAT of VND218bn (+21% yoy) in 2021 driven chemicals price rally amid global supply shortage. In 2022F, the company a VND1,742bn revenue (10% yoy) and VND251bn PBT (-8% yoy). CSV is going to pay a 15% cash dividend at par per year in 2022F-23F. In 1Q22, CSV recorded spectacular growth with a VND483bn revenue (+64% yoy) and a VND140bn PBT (+198% yoy), fulfilling 28%/56% annual guidance.

Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to pessimistic sentiment. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.

On April 27, we attended SAB’s AGM, briefed on its 2022F guidance and long-term prospects. Overall, SAB sets positive 2022F guidance with a VND34,791bn revenue (+32% yoy), and a VND4,581 PAT (+17% yoy). Per the management, in late 2021 and early 2022, reopening the economy by stimulating tourism and restaurants, led the beer industry to recover strongly. Besides, beer production still faces difficulties owing to scarcity and a spike in raw materials prices. However, SAB has well-prepared input raw materials and ensured enough materials for 2022F due to buying forward contracts and support from ThaiBev. Based on 2022F guidance, 12MF PE is trading at 25.0x, slightly lower than the 2-year median of 25.5x, and 12MF PB is 4.4x, significantly lower than the 2-year median of 5.5x.

Although the short-term price target for the bearish swing is reached, demand is still not strong enough to totally fade the selling pressure. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for the accurate trading point.

The short-term price target for the bearish swing is reached and volatility would increase in upcoming sessions. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for the accurate trading point.