研究中心

Short VN30F2207 near 1,230 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,240 pts level. (Hourly chart)

Economic activities remain strong in the second quarter with an unexpectedly high growth rate due to the fruitful trade and recovering domestic consumption. Given this momentum, we predict that Vietnam’s economy to accelerate in the next quarter. However, the recession would possibly lower economic performance than expected through the global value chain transmission. For Vietnam stock market, we expect that the VNIndex would form a new trough thanks to solid macro indicators and the analysis of cycles and patterns of the VNIndex. Accordingly, the index would possibly reach the threshold of 1,300-1,400 points in 3Q22.

Long position on VN30F2207 near 1,240 pts area should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level. (Hourly chart)

Market sentiment has become cautious because of the second contraction. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal. Besides, traders should watch the double bottom pattern as the levels of the two last bottoms are the same.

Last week, trading activity decreased slightly across the covered warrant market. With foreign trading activity, although the market kept ending up to be net sold, but demand has started to increase. Net sell value was VND1.8bn, down 40% WoW. Notably, covered warrants which have FPT as the underlying asset has attracted most of trading activity for 2 consecutive months, mainly driven by CFPT2203(7.5%).

Based on the contraction, the downside risk is still in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal. Besides, traders should watch the double bottom pattern as the levels of the two last bottoms are the same.

Long position on VN30F2207 near 1,240 pts area should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level. (Hourly chart)

In May 2022, seafood export recorded climbed 34% yoy and -6% mom to USD1,062mn. Shrimp and pangasius export increased 31% and 67% yoy in May. Shrimp export flatted as April, while pangasius export maintains rally increase yoy and dropped 20% mom compared to high based April export.

Market ended up to be net bought. Demand was mainly attracted by Financials and Industrials whilst selling activity was absorbed the most by Materials, Consumer Staples and Real Estate. With ETF flow, money inflow across Vietnam dropped. Net inflow was USD5mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the demand on VFMVN Diamond and Fubon FTSE.

In Jun, rubber export gained the spotlight thanks to an amazing increase in both export volume and value. However, contrary to the expectation about boosting export output in the context of global food shortage fears, rice exports recorded a little bit shy result.