English
Tiếng Việt
12
7月
Market commentary: Retest last bottom
The downtrend is dominant in the short term with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
研究中心
首页
11
7月
Chart of the day: Confirm bearish market again
In the short term, the downtrend is dominant because of the trending indicator and low liquidity.
11
7月
Power – Sector brief – Hydropower boomed in Jun
Total electricity production in Jun was 24.52bn kWh (+5.1% mom, +2.6% yoy) and the 6M22 aggregate output volume went up to 133.1bn kWh (+3.6% yoy). The unexpectedly high level of rainfall in May and Jun, especially in the North amid the extremely hot season made the hydropower output surge to 11bn kWh in Jun (+33% mom, +71.3% yoy), which made the average free market price (FMP) in May dropped to VND1,136/kWh. It is predicted that there will be 10-12 typhoons and tropical depressions till the end of the year, thus the heavy rainfall is expected to occur in the 2H22F.
11
7月
Daily derivatives: Position size should be minimized
Short VN30F2207 near 1,230 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,240 pts level. As the volatile trading environment still exists, position size should be minimized. (Hourly chart)
11
7月
Market commentary: Rebound
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
08
7月
Market commentary: Bullish piercing pattern
Bullish piercing appears on the VNIndex, implying a bullish signal. However, the downtrend is dominated in the short term with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
08
7月
Daily derivatives: Volatile trading environment
Short VN30F2207 near 1,230 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,240 pts level. (Hourly chart)
08
7月
Securities – Sector brief – 2Q22 Market updates
2Q22 trading value was down significantly. Combined 2Q22 ADTV on 3 bourses was VND20.5tn (-34.2% QoQ, -21.8% YoY). Contrast to unfavorable market movements in the second quarter, securities companies did a great job to gain an enormous number of accounts. In 2Q22 separately, there were 1.174mn new accounts (+73.6% QoQ, new high record established). The competition of securities companies in brokerage spotted interesting developments. VPS ended a 13-quarter streak with positive quarterly growth rates and HSC was back to Top 4 brokerage market share.
Textile & Garment – Sector Brief – June Export Updates
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained optimistic with 16.5% yoy and 13.1% mom, to USD3.6bn in June. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.8bn, +13.1% yoy/+11.2% mom, accounting for 50.2% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 1H22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover soared 21.4% yoy to USD18.6bn.
07
7月
Market commentary: A new bottom
Based on the new low, the market sentiment has become pessimistic. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signal.
Featured Articles
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.