21
6月
Daily derivatives: Bearish momentum shows no sign of weakness
Selling pressure is still strong and the rebound phase could not occur. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the bottom forming signal.
21
6月
Selling pressure is still strong and the rebound phase could not occur. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the bottom forming signal.
21
6月
GMC targets a VND620bn revenue (-42% yoy) and a VND60bn NPAT (+9% yoy) in 2022F. The company will pay 2021’s dividend by cash at 50%, in which 1st payment of 20% will be on June 24th and the 2nd payment of 30% is expected to be in 3Q22F. A 50% cash dividend at par could bring an appealing dividend yield of 22.2%.
21
6月
Market ended up to be net bought. Demand was mainly attracted by Financials, Materials, and Industrials whilst selling activity was absorbed the most by RConsumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary. With ETF flow, money inflow across Vietnam continued to slow down. Net inflow was USD13mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by Fubon FTSE Vietnam.
21
6月
On Jun 17, we tuned in to GVR’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business plan. Rubber Group of Vietnam is among the biggest state-owned rubber producers with 400,000ha rubber land: Laos and Cambodia occupy 115,000ha, Southeast regions of Vietnam form 150,000-160,000ha, Central Highland accounts for 70,000. GVR’s rubber capacity stood at 1.51tonne/ha in 2021. Hit by swirls of raw material price rally and freight rate upturn, GVR prudently guides a flattish NPAT of VND5,340bn based on a 4.8% yoy revenue growth.
20
6月
The downside risk is intact in the short term due to low liquidity. Besides, the VNIndex continues to close below the 10- and 20-period moving average. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signal.
20
6月
Although the 1,200 pts zone is still held, the downtrend is still active. In this case, investors should decrease the current positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate trading signal which would come after the demand accumulation phase.
20
6月
Selling pressure is still strong and demand is not strong enough to faded current bearish swing. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate trading signal.
17
6月
On Jun 16, we attended TCL’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business plan. TCL currently held 92%, and 65% of market shares in the port operating segment in the Ho Chi Minh region, and Cai Mep area, respectively. TCL also occupied merely 50% of the container for international trades segment. On a prudent hope for a robust revival, TCL guides NPAT to be VND117.7bn, +3.7% yoy driven by a revenue estimate of VND1,242.5bn, +3.4% yoy. A 42% cash dividend at par could be paid in Aug, 2022, equivalent to a dividend yield of 11.6%.
17
6月
The selling pressure near 1,300 pts zone needs more time to be absorbed and the instrument could not pierce this zone on this trading day. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate trading signal.
17
6月
Indirectly owned by Duc Giang Chemicals JSC (DGC VN, Non-rated) with a 51% stake, Vietnam Apatite Phosphorus Company (PAT) is going to list on the UPCoM bourse on Jun 17th with its 25mn shares. Riding on the commodity upswing, PAT stands out and gains the spotlight.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.