01
8月
July's figures show a more visible effect of the global slowdown on Vietnam's economy, especially in trade and production. Export turnover and industrial manufacture of export-oriented products have been hit by the output reduction from smartphone giants as a response to weaker demand concerns. However, domestic consumption continues recovering impressively and could be a shield for the economic growth in 3Q22.
29
7月
In Jul, the export of agricultural products was sluggish when most of the items decreased in both value and volume. Total agricultural plant export was USD1,671mn (-10% mom and +5% yoy). Surprisingly, rubber export value topped in total export turnover with 21% share, followed by rice (20%), coffee (17%), cashew (16%), vegetables (16%), and cassava (5%).
29
7月
TCM posted modest business results in 2Q22 with revenue of VND1,049bn (+7.2% yoy, -6.5% qoq) and NPAT of VND55bn (-6.2% yoy, -25.1% qoq). After a challenging 2021 with negative earnings growth, in 1H22, the company recorded VND2,171bn (+12.7% yoy) in revenue and VND129bn in NPAT (+6.6% yoy).
29
7月
Petro Vietnam Fertilizer (DPM) issued 2Q22’s business results on Jul 28, featuring a VND5,103bn (-14% qoq and +71% yoy) revenue and a VND1,291bn (-39% qoq and +86% yoy) net profit. We think DPM could leverage their sales volume in 2H22F due to 1) increasing domestic demand for the Winter-Spring crop, and 2) accelerating export to India in the Kharif season, the most important crop (Jun-Oct).
29
7月
TNH issued 2Q22 business results with a VND119bn (+33% qoq and +9% yoy) revenue and a VND38bn (+137% qoq and +11% yoy) NPAT. Sales growth in 2Q22 confirmed the return of patients to hospitals and we believe the upward trend could continue for the healthcare industry in general and TNH in specific in next quarters.
29
7月
VSH posted its 2Q22 business results with revenue of VND661bn (+33% yoy) and PAT of VND257bn (+90% yoy), mainly bolstered by the increase of ASP (+23.4% yoy) and output (+7.5% yoy). The probability of La Nina effect will wane in Jul but will rebound during Aug – Oct 2022 with moderate probability (68%), continuing into boreal fall and early winter with 63-70% likelihood. VSH will be the beneficiary when EVN increases the mobilization of hydropower in 2H22F.
29
7月
OPC posted 2Q22 business results with a revenue of VND214bn (+10% yoy but -44% qoq) and a NPAT of VND29bn (+72% yoy and -28% qoq). Gross margin achieved 41%, +3%p qoq and +2%p yoy. It seems that OPC has demonstrated their effort in controlling material costs regardless a fall in revenue. Despite short-term decline in revenue, we believe that OPC still has long-term growth potential, due to the tendency of consumers to gradually switch to herbal products.
29
7月
NT2 posted stellar results in 2Q22 when its revenue (+66% yoy) and net profit (+13.9x yoy) were pegged high due to 1) increasing output when it reached 1,181mn kWh (+23.7% yoy) and 2) soaring power price in the context of material prices (gas, coal) and tight coal supplies. Despite harsh competition from hydropower and renewable energy in 2H22, we believe NT2 would maintain its strength as a reliable power supplier amid recovering power demand.
29
7月
Last week, trading activity increased slightly across the covered warrant market. With foreign trading activity, foreign selling pressure came back. Net sell value was VND3.9bn. Notably, trading interest has shifted to cover warrants which have HPG and STB as the underlying asset.
29
7月
Long position on VN30F2208 near 1,220-1,225 pts area should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,215 pts level. (Hourly chart)
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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