09
8月
Interest rates in the money market remained high this week as the thirst for short-term liquidity was unresolved. SBV has reduced its support to the banking system with a lower 7-day repo offering than the previous week. Besides, spot USDVND backed to approach SBV’s selling price as DXY returned to its uptrend with the strong release of the U.S. labor market.
08
8月
Market ended up to be net bought. Demand was mainly absorbed by Financials and Real Estate whilst supply mainly spread to Consumer Staples and Industrials. With ETF flow, inflow remained across Vietnam, mainly driven by the solid demand on X FTSE Vietnam.
08
8月
The short-term uptrend is dominant thanks to high liquidity and breakout.
08
8月
The uptrend is still confirmed in the short term because the VNIndex closes above the 1,250-pts threshold. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
08
8月
Thanks to the 3 new wind power projects which officially operated at the end of 2021, GEG’s output volume was considerably up 47% yoy to 217mn kWh which made the total revenue to have an impressive growth of 58% yoy, to VND506bn. However, 2Q22’s NPAT-post MI plunged 53% yoy to VND30bn due to the surging depreciation and interest expenses. GEG is awaiting the regulation regarding “transitional” renewable energy projects and it is expected to be a beneficiary of PDP VIII.
08
8月
Long position on VN30F2208 near 1,220-1,225 pts area should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,215 pts level. (Hourly chart)
05
8月
The VNIndex closes above the 1,250-pts threshold. That means the uptrend is still confirmed in the short term. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
05
8月
VNM recorded domestic market revenue of VND12,471bn (-5.9% yoy) contributed by the parent’s domestic revenue of VND10,994bn (-7.2% yoy) and VND839bn (+6.2% yoy) revenue of MCM in 2Q22. The decrease in domestic revenue was caused by weak demand amid high inflation and distribution restructuring in 2Q22. However, VNM has recorded positive signals after restructuring, with revenue growth of 3% and 10% yoy in June and July, respectively.
04
8月
The VNIndex may contract the next session when appropriate to the 1,250-pts threshold. However, the VNIndex confirms the uptrend thanks to breakout and high volume. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
04
8月
Long position on VN30F2208 near 1,220-1,225 pts area should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,215 pts level. (Hourly chart)
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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