22
8月
The July performance witnessed the significant decline in export volume, however, export still remains as the key growth driver in 7M22. Weak demand dragged overall performance. In which, domestic sales volume dropped significantly by 13.8% yoy.
22
8月
Market ended up to be net bought. Demand was mainly absorbed by Materials, Financials, and Energy whilst supply mainly spread to Real Estate and Industrials. With ETF flow, inflow remained across Vietnam, mainly driven by the solid demand on major ETFs, except VFMVN Diamond and VFMVN30.
22
8月
VN30F2208 is expired and the upcoming contract (VN30F2209) has shown no valid trading signal. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for accurate trading point.
22
8月
Despite second contraction, the uptrend is still intact in the short term. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
22
8月
The VNIndex shows a consolidation phase in the next week, however, the short-term uptrend is still intact.
22
8月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During July 22, it’s no surprised that we observed the weak demand in both domestic and export markets. We expect the trend to continue in next months.
18
8月
The short-term uptrend is dominant thanks to Runaway Gap on the VNIndex. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
18
8月
Long position on VN30F2208 near 1,220-1,225 pts area should be held and close the positions after ATC session. (Hourly chart)
18
8月
In 2Q22, hydropower volume soared up 51% yoy thanks to high rainfall levels and rising global coal & fuel oil prices which made coal thermal and gas-fired power output plunged 26% yoy and 7% yoy. Despite that, some thermal makers namely HND, QTP, NT2 profit still have positive profit growth thanks to rising selling price. We expect the favorable weather condition in 3Q22 will be beneficial to hydropower generators in the North and central region.
17
8月
On Aug 16th, The Insurance Association of Viet Nam (IAV) announced 1H22 market figures. Total insurance premium in 1H22 was VND118,252bn (+15.2% yoy). In which, life insurance premium increased by 15.7% to VND84,467bn; non-life insurance premium also surged by 14.1% to VND33,785bn. Non-life insurance growth slightly increased to 14.1% in 1H22, still on the rise with double-digit figures. Whilst, life insurance market recorded a 15.7% growth in insurance premium which is lower than the growth over 20% of last year.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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