研究中心

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We expect to see a challenging quarter for steel makers when the ASP is lower and the demand is expected to be weak due to rainy season. The input prices are expected to increase and margins are expected to be slightly hit in 3Q23. 2Q23 total sales volume is in line with our forecast (6.0mn tonnes vs 6.1 tonnes – KIS forecast). We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 3Q23F due to rainy season. We forecast the total sales volume in 3Q23F will be 5.8mn tonnes +8% yoy, -9% qoq.

NPAT recorded a significant decline -81.1%yoy. The largest effect comes from the surge of interest expenses, which is VND206bn, +47.9%yoy right after Tan Thuan Phong 1 wind power plant started operating and stop capitalizing interest expenses. In addition to we forecast that interest expenses will remain high in 2H23. We still keep a BUY recommendation for GEG with target price 19,700 VND per share, upside 27.5% compared to market price on 30 July 2023.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During June 23, we observed the total consumption volume was slightly down 6.2% mom, 3.1% yoy to 2.0mn tonnes. The total sale volume was slumped due to weak global demand (11.5Mn tonnes, -17.5% yoy).

On Jun 28, State Bank of Vietnam issued Circular 06/2023/TT-NHNN amending Circular 39/20216-TT-NHNN on the lendinig activities with more prudent control and stricter requirement. We view positively since it helps enhance the credit quality control of banking systems and efficiency use of capital flow to economy. Besides, the new circular accommodates the deferred payment foreign loans.

According to the GSO estimate, in Jun, the total agriculture export value slightly increased to USD2.2bn (+5% mom, +21% yoy). Vegetable keeps being the highest value exported product with USD723mn (+45% mom, +189% yoy), and it accounted for 17% of total agriculture export turnover (+9%p mom), followed by rice (17%, -8%p mom) and coffee (17%, -3%p mom). In which, vegetable export to China in May-23 quintupled yoy to USD482mn, the figure also doubled mom.

The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment swelled to USD2.92bn (+14.8% mom but fell 8.0% yoy) in May. The accumulated export value was disappointed again with US12,628bn (-16% yoy), weighting our dim hope of recovery. Despite the industry export value downturned in Apr (total industry export growth of USD2.54bn, -3.3% mom, -19.4% yoy), the listed companies diverged: VGG (USD37.74mn, +14.71% mom, -22.09% yoy, TNG, USD31.58mn (+15.73% mom, +27.28% yoy). GIL was not out of the wood yet (USD1.38mn, -15.38% mom, -93.42% yoy).

According to Customs, the total May fertilizer export volume was nearly 155,000 tonnes (+17.5% mom, -3.13% yoy), equivalent to USD57mn (+17.36% mom, -46.32% yoy). The 5M23 Vietnam export pulled back in both volume 691,824 tonnes (-15.53% yoy) and value with USD289mn, -50.3% yoy. Observing the domestic market, urea price was trading around VND10,100/kg (+9% mom, -41% yoy) in May. The average urea price hovered around VND10,300/kg (-39.6% yoy) in 5M23. We maintain Neutral rating.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During May 23, we observed an impressive export volume (+51.9% yoy, +29.7% mom) while domestic sales volume showed an uptick of 5% mom

We initiate an Overweight rating on the Crushed Stone industry in 12-month horizons spurred by the robust demand growth serving the public infrastructure spending in 2024-2025F. Going forward, the housing property could bounce back, reinforcing the crushed stone consumption growth in 2024-2023F. However, the South’s crushed stone industry could cite a slow 2023 due to the gloomy housing property dynamics seen in 2020-22. We give BUY ratings to VLB (TP: VND45,100, UPSIDE: +47%) and DHA (TP: VND47,000, UPSIDE: +22%) and HOLD to KSB

According to the GSO estimate, in May, the total agriculture export value remained stable at USD2.1bn (+2% mom, +19% yoy). Rice keeps being the highest value exported product with USD530mn (-8% mom, +37% yoy), and it accounted for 25% of total agriculture export turnover. Vegetables export value sharply rose by 22% mom and 67% yoy to USD500mn. Vegetables and fruits exporting value to China increased 30% yoy in 4M23. In 2Q23, Vietnam expected to boost durian and sweet potato sales to China market after China Customs certified more qualified export zones in Vietnam.