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According to the GSO estimate, in May, the total agriculture export value remained stable at USD2.1bn (+2% mom, +19% yoy). Rice keeps being the highest value exported product with USD530mn (-8% mom, +37% yoy), and it accounted for 25% of total agriculture export turnover. Vegetables export value sharply rose by 22% mom and 67% yoy to USD500mn. Vegetables and fruits exporting value to China increased 30% yoy in 4M23. In 2Q23, Vietnam expected to boost durian and sweet potato sales to China market after China Customs certified more qualified export zones in Vietnam.

We tuned in to MSB’s analyst meeting on May 24 which featured the strategical visibility on the bank and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. The ratio of loan type 2-5 to cross loan and NPL climbed to 5.2% (vs. 3.1% as of end-2022) and 2.0% (vs. 1.7% as of end-2022) respectively. We note that the 1Q23 loan type 2 grew +146%YTD to VND4,337bn, about added VND2,700bn. Restructuring loan on circular 02 is estimated at VND229bn. Of which, SME and retail estimate VNsD189bn and VND40bn respectively according to the management.

PVS posted a solid business result in 1Q23 with flat revenue of VND3.7tn (-2% yoy), in which, Mechanical & construction (M&C) revenue reach VND2,048b (+4.1% yoy). PVS recorded NPAT-MI of VND215bn (-1% yoy) due to having a one-off profit in 1Q23. In the long term, PVS will focus on offshore wind power.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam banking is intended to track the earning growth based on financial statements. The 1Q23 recorded some anomalies when aggregated NPAT of the listed 27 banks was almost unchanged at -4.4%yoy in 1Q23 vs +17.9%yoy in 4Q22 and +31%yoy in 1Q22. Most of the banks saw 1Q23 credit growth slowness and corporate bond balance slump. There are no clear signals for strong credit demand recovery amid the economic downtrend. However, 2Q23 NIM will slightly improve qoq thanks to a decrease in funding cost in 2Q23.

4M23 preliminary revenue posted VND3,116bn (-36.1% yoy), backed by (1) high base in 4M22, and (2) the tumble revenue of most products yoy and qoq, especially pangasius. 4M23 revenue fulfill 26% our estimates. We maintain a HOLD rating

We tuned in to CTG’s analyst meeting on May 18 which featured the strategical visibility on the group and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. Total credit risk provision cost could fall by 34.5-50% yoy (VND12,000-15,000bn) in 2023, per management. However, CTG has yet provide the PBT guidance since they must obtain approval from SVB based on 2023 AGM. The management eyes NPL to be below 1.8% as of end-2023.

In the agriculture sector, revenue edged up by 7% yoy to VND18.7tn, mainly contributed by the surging revenue of crop producers by 21% yoy, covering 20% yoy revenue slump of feeding companies. We expect that falling feed supply prices amid demand increase thanks to the long holiday (30/4-1/5) will help retrieve the pork and poultry price in 2Q23. However, the expenses of utilities and interest expenses could remain at a high level in 2Q23.

Total Apr steel sales volume posted 129,992 tonnes, dropping by 25.8% yoy but increasing 21.5% mom. The FY7M23 (Oct 2023-Feb 2023) total sale decreased 38.0% yoy to 764,474 tonnes as steel pipes volume declined 24.5% yoy to 162,258 tonnes and steel coat fell 40.8% yoy to 602,216 tonnes.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Apr 23, we observed a qoq improvement pause in total sales volume.

Total Apr steel sales volume posted 77,269 tonnes, decreasing 7.6% mom and 17.0% yoy. The 4M23 total sales volume came in at 271,967 tonnes, -22.4% yoy. In which, the steel coat volume declined 24.6% yoy to 221,091 tonnes and the steel pipes volume was down by 11.0% yoy to 50,870 tonnes.