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VNM posted 4Q21 results with a VND15.8tn revenue (+9.7% yoy) and a VND2.2tn NPATMI (+0.5% yoy), prompting revenue of VND60.9tn (+2.2% yoy) and NPATMI of VND10.5tn (-5.1% yoy) in 2021. The 4Q21 revenue growth was the best quarterly performance in the 5 past years thanks to a 7.4% yoy domestic revenue partially driven by the low base seen in 4Q20 (flooding in the Central). We are reviewing our forecast of earnings growth in 2022F-24F, target price, and ratings. Currently, we rate VNM as HOLD given the fact that Vinamilk’s prospect is fairly priced at a cash dividend yield of 5% and a forward PE of 16x

Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of listed milk companies, brew and sugar grew by 9.8%, 7.7%, and 26.4% yoy, respectively. The 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI of dairy and sugar producers increased by 4.2% and 15% yoy, respectively. Meanwhile, the NPATMI growth of listed beer companies was softer at -19.7% yoy after bottoming at -66% in 3Q21 due to tepid domestic demand in the lockdown period. Most producers have plans to increase selling prices in 1Q22F to make up for the higher input costs. Big players such as VNM, SAB have just increased prices by about 3-5% in late Dec 2021 and that will support GMs in 1Q22F.

4Q21 aggregated revenue of 17 listed fertilizer producers jumped 86.9% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI soared 1,410.8% yoy. The NPATMI grew sharply and reached an all-time high in 4Q21. The stronger net profit growth was attributed to gross profit margin expansion. Demand for agricultural products remains abundant in 2022F backed by urges to ensure food security after COVID-19 pandemic and to compensate for the crop reduction due to climate changes.

On Feb 18, PDR set up an analyst meeting to brief their 4Q21 results, land bank acquisition and development plan in 2022F-24F. The company claims to acquire at least 5,531ha as of end-2021 (459ha as of end-2020) in 8 provinces of which 18-20% is secured for development while the remainders are sought for a legal license. Breaking down by type of purpose, 28% of the total land bank is monetised for industrial estates. In detail, PDR plans to monetize a 24ha logistic area in Cai Mep-Vung Tau province and 394ha Cao Lanh industrial park in Dong Thap province in 2022F

On Feb 18 analyst meeting, Bamboo Capital Group (BCG) introduced us to the 4Q21 results and their 2022F business plans regarding real estate development and renewable energy strategy. - The net debt to equity is geared to 1.55-1.56x in 2020-21, raising concerns about their leverage. The company has yet provided its fund plan but could issue 60mn shares in 2022F to reduce this ratio.

The sector aggregated revenue was pegged at VND20.4tn (+92% yoy) in 4Q21 and VND60.5tn (+109% yoy) in 2021. In tandem with the revenue growth, aggregated profit after tax grew robustly with VND6.6tn (+88% yoy) in 4Q21 and VND21.5tn (+115% yoy) in 2021. We estimate that the ADTV in 1Q22F continues to stay at VND22tn-23tn (+20% yoy). Revenue from brokerage and margin lending could account for a major proportion in revenue and net profit structure. Therefore, revenue performance in 1Q22F could be secured with positive YoY results.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 4Q21, we saw a net margin declined in most steel makers. We expect that export and accelerated infrastructure spending will be the key drivers in 1Q22, however, the gross margin compress will continue due to global supply restraint of input materials and narrowed HRC gaps.

The company held an analyst meeting on Feb 9 to give the audience a walkthrough of of the upcoming business expansion plan.For full year, NVL’s net revenue was pegged at VND14.9tn, 196.5% yoy while its NPATMI plunged to VND3.2tn, -17.6% yoy due to the absence of a VND3.4tn financial gain from divestment in Phu Dinh Port company in 2020. The results are falling short of the company guidance at 54.2%/84.4%. - The company aims to expand at least to 57,200ha in 2030F with 8,800ha targeted within short-term horizon.

4Q21 NPATMI of VND361bn plunged largely in the absence of the unexpected revaluation gain in 4Q20. In 4Q21, revenue from product handover was remarkable mainly thanks to from handover Akari City of 1,525 units, equivalent to VND3.5tn. The result was lower than our estimation of 1,800 units. Together with a VND429bn goodwill income booked in 1Q21 thanks to a further 30.1% stake acquisition to 65.1% of Waterfront (Izumi) project, 2021 NPATMI reached VND1,071bn, +28.2% yoy.

The November performance witnessed the pause in domestic demand revival amid high expectations during peak construction season. The domestic volume of steel coat recorded 13,516 tonnes (-35.6% mom, -37.8% yoy) while domestic steel pipe volume posted 10,022 tonnes (-28.1% you, -52.9% mom) amid the easing lockdown policy.