08
4月
In 3M22, aggregate output volume went up 4.9% yoy to 63.03bn kWh thanks to economy recovery, in which hydropower and renewable energy are the biggest beneficiaries. Total coal volume supplied by Vinacomin (TKV) and Dong Bac Group were only 77% and lacked 1.36 million tonnes compared to contracted volume. Some coal-fired power plants are operating at 60-70% of capacity. EVN predicted a shortage of 3,000 megawatts of electricty.
08
4月
Compared to Feb, fertilizer production in Mar recovered with 597,800 tonnes (+10% mom and +2% yoy). Fertilizer export volume in Mar had modest amount at 90,000 tonnes, up 80% mom but down 30% yoy. While the export price in Mar was estimated at USD544/tonne (+5% mom and +76% yoy), the import price was USD400/tonne (-18% mom but +43% yoy).
08
4月
Trading value in 1Q22 was VND31.2tn (-7.1% QoQ) thanks to high liquidity in Jan and Mar. Number of of new accounts created new high record in March with 270,636 accounts. At end-Mar, accumulated number of accounts was 4.95mn. The ratio of domestic individuals accounts overpopulation is 5% which is 2025 target for the stock market. In term of HSX's brokerage market share, VPS expands their market share to 17.94%. SSI and HCM continue to lost their pieces while VND and TCBS slightly uplifted market share.
07
4月
On April 5, VIC released its audited 2021 balance sheet featuring an NPATMI profit of VND367.2bn vs a loss of VND453.7bn in the preliminary report. The 2021 NPATMI in the audited income statement recorded less loss to VND2.5tn vs -VND2.7tn in the prelim result. The Ho Chi Minh Exchange (HSX) removed VIC from the margin list and could add back in Aug after the reviewing VIC's semi-annual financial statement,
05
4月
On April 2nd, we tuned in to QNS’s AGM session which gave the audience a walkthrough of the upcoming business plan, 2022F guidance, and optimistic long-term strategy. In 1Q22, QNS recorded a volume of milk segment of 54.3mn litters (+13.6% yoy), the revenue of nearly VND877bn (+21% yoy). The growth rate of 1Q22 revenue was high due to hiking average selling price by about 7% yoy in1Q22 and the low base caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 1Q21.
01
4月
In 1Q22, Vietnam seafood export surged 40% yoy to USD2,427.4mn, driving by +88% yoy of pangasius export value, +35% yoy of shrimp export value, and +55% yoy of tuna export value. Seafood export to main markets increased strongly in 1Q22 as +84% yoy in China market, +66% yoy in US market and +69% yoy in EU market.
01
4月
STK held an AGM session on March 31st to articulate the business plan, coming out with optimistic business guidance. The company targets a VND2,605.7bn revenue, +27.6% yoy and a VND300.2bn NPAT, +7.8% yoy in 2022F. A 15% cash dividend at par will be paid this year. Based on guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 14.87x and 12MF PB is 3.02x, higher than 2-year median of 11.33x and 1.99x, respectively.
01
4月
On Mar 31, REE Corp (REE) held the Annual General Meeting. While revenue is expected to soar up to VND9,247bn (+59.2% yoy) in 2022F, NPATMI only edges up 11.1% yoy to VND2,061bn due to the high proportion of M&E in revenue (42.5%) when net margin of M&E is only 5-6%, per management. Based on guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 14.1x and 12MF PB is 1.6x, slightly higher than the 2-year median of 10x and 1.4x, respectively.
31
3月
MCM sets conservative FY2022F guidance of VND3,122bn revenue, +6.7% yoy and VND343.5bn NPAT, +7.6% yoy. Per management, the dairy industry is being affected by an inflationary cost, in which, the prices of animal feed, especially concentrate increased by 40-50% yoy, it happened worldwide.
30
3月
On Mar 29, SZC made an AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. Key issues covered were the 2022F guidance and their long-term targets. In 2022F, SZC’s earnings guidance retreats by 43.2% yoy despite a flattish revenue growth forecast of 7.3% yoy, per management. Based on management's guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 42.3 times and 12MF PB is 4.7 times, remarkably higher than the 2-year median of 17.2x and 2.7x, respectively.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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