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On April 19, Novaland held Annual General Meeting which gave the audience a walkthrough of the 2022F business expansion plan. Despite being missed the 2021 guidance at 54.2%/84.4% of revenue and NPATMI, NVL still set up prosperous targets with a VND35.9tn revenue, +141% yoy and a VND3.5tn NPAT, +88% yoy. Based on management's guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 45.7 times and 12MF PB is 4.2 times, significantly higher than the 1-year median PE of 35.5x but slightly lower than PB of 4.5x.

The company targets a VND2,005bn revenue (+11%) and VND250bn net profit (+38% yoy) in 2022F. LCG will pay 2021’s stock dividend at 10% and plans to pay 2022F’s cash dividend of 12% at par. In 1Q22, the company announced preliminary revenue and PAT are VND177bn (-62% yoy) and VND51bn (-10%), respectively. It also set the new prioritized business lines from 2022F-2025F, including: transportation infrastructure, renewable energy and real estate.

The company targets a USD178mn revenue, +120% yoy and a VND10.8mn NPAT, +188% yoy in 2022F, 15% stock dividend for 2021, expected to pay in June this year. In 1Q22, the company reached a USD47.3mn revenue, +19% yoy, and a USD3mn NPAT, +17% yoy, fulfilling 26.6%/27.7% full-year estimates.

GAS sets 2022F guidance of VND80tn revenue (+1% yoy), and VND8.8tn PBT (-21.4% yoy), the plan is based on the scenario of Brent oil at USD60. In 1Q22, the company announced preliminary revenue and PBT are VND25.3tn (+44% yoy) and above VND3tn (+13.8% yoy), respectively, per management. GAS estimates gas sales volume is 1.9bn m3 in 1Q22.

3Q23 net profit grew +3.4%qoq and -13%yoy to VND5,843bn mainly due to higher operating expenses (+20.5%yoy, CIR: from 29% in 3Q22 to 35% in 3Q23) and a sharp increase in credit provision expense (+55.1%yoy). Meanwhile, total operating income stayed flat (+0.8%yoy), resulting from better than non-interest income (+13%yoy). 9M2023 PBT slumped -17.8%yoy to VND17,115bn, equalling to 78% of the 2023 target and 83% of our 2023 forecasts.

On April 15, TIP made an AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. In 2022F, the company offers unconsolidated guidance with a VND175bn revenue (+6.5% yoy) including around VND30-35bn interest income and a VND85bn NPATMI (0% yoy). The revenue estimates are major attributed to the land rental and related services.

In 2022, we forecast that the seafood export value could reach USD9.2bn (+5.4% yoy). The validity of tariffs in FTAs sharpens the Vietnam fishery’s competitive edges and that bolsters export growth. Our Overweight rating on Vietnam’s seafood industry is based on the strong potential earnings growth for pangasius producers backed by the sustainable export demand.

We value VNM using a DCF (70%) and PE (30%) methodology. We maintain our HOLD rating with our target price of VND83,900. Our target price implies a target 2022F PE of 18.9x, which is equal to its peers. The sluggish outlook has been relatively reflected in the share price, VNM has underperformed the market by 20% over the last six months. Therefore, we maintain our Hold rating despite the subdued outlook and cheap valuation. At our target price of VND83,900, the upside is 14.9%.

The input-price volatility caused by the geopolitical tension and the pent-up demand for the energy post-COVID19 would compress the company’s margin in 2022F. We estimate gross margin contraction by 4.4%p from 27.4% in 2021 to 23.0% in 2022F. The 1Q22 NPATMI is forecasted at VND8,900bn, +27.7% yoy.

On April 7th, FPT made an AGM presentation briefing for the 2022F business plan and the long-term business expansion plan. FPT sets 2022F guidance of VND42.4tn revenue (+19% yoy), and VND7.6tn PBT (+20.2% yoy), this growth guidance is similar to 2021. Particularly, per management, the 2022F revenue estimate consists of some key contributors: Technology of VND24.9tn (+21.1% yoy), Telecommunications of VND14,6tn (+14.8% yoy) and Education, Investment & Others of VND2.96tn (32.5% yoy). The 2022F PBT guidance comprises of Technology with VND3,360bn (+19.3% yoy), Telecommunications with VND2,812bn (+17.4% yoy), and Education, Investment & Others with VND1,446tn (+28.4% yoy).