24
6月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During May 22, we observed the weak demand in both domestic and export markets. We also continue to expect the temporary price retreat will end soon after COVID-19 restrictions ease in China.
24
6月
The May performance witnessed the growth in export volume on year-on-year basis, helping export channel to remain as the key growth driver in 5M22. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 13,952 tonnes (-27.8% mom, -29.3% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 10,288 tonnes (-25.2% mom and -36.1% yoy).
21
6月
GMC targets a VND620bn revenue (-42% yoy) and a VND60bn NPAT (+9% yoy) in 2022F. The company will pay 2021’s dividend by cash at 50%, in which 1st payment of 20% will be on June 24th and the 2nd payment of 30% is expected to be in 3Q22F. A 50% cash dividend at par could bring an appealing dividend yield of 22.2%.
21
6月
On Jun 17, we tuned in to GVR’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business plan. Rubber Group of Vietnam is among the biggest state-owned rubber producers with 400,000ha rubber land: Laos and Cambodia occupy 115,000ha, Southeast regions of Vietnam form 150,000-160,000ha, Central Highland accounts for 70,000. GVR’s rubber capacity stood at 1.51tonne/ha in 2021. Hit by swirls of raw material price rally and freight rate upturn, GVR prudently guides a flattish NPAT of VND5,340bn based on a 4.8% yoy revenue growth.
17
6月
On Jun 16, we attended TCL’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business plan. TCL currently held 92%, and 65% of market shares in the port operating segment in the Ho Chi Minh region, and Cai Mep area, respectively. TCL also occupied merely 50% of the container for international trades segment. On a prudent hope for a robust revival, TCL guides NPAT to be VND117.7bn, +3.7% yoy driven by a revenue estimate of VND1,242.5bn, +3.4% yoy. A 42% cash dividend at par could be paid in Aug, 2022, equivalent to a dividend yield of 11.6%.
17
6月
Indirectly owned by Duc Giang Chemicals JSC (DGC VN, Non-rated) with a 51% stake, Vietnam Apatite Phosphorus Company (PAT) is going to list on the UPCoM bourse on Jun 17th with its 25mn shares. Riding on the commodity upswing, PAT stands out and gains the spotlight.
16
6月
Total insurance premium accumulated in 4M22 was pegged VND74,036bn (+14.1% yoy). Growth rate up to 4M22 for life insurance premium was 14.5% which continues to be less positive when compared to growth rate above 20% in 2020 and 2021. The losing growing momentum is claimed to delayed effect of COVID19. Having to be mentioned that the current pace is just weaker than one in previous period and we do not see any bad sign in long-term sector’s outlook. Contrast to Life insurance, Non-life maintained an impressive growth rate. Particularly, 4M22 premium growth rate was 13%, much higher than 2020 and 2021 performance which is 6.2% and 3.98%, respectively. The main motivation comes from high-proportion products namely Health insurance as well as Motor vehicle insurance.
10
6月
In May 2022, total electricity production was 23.34bn kWh (+3.2% mom, -2.7% yoy). Hydropower output also surged 47.9% yoy, 44.7% mom to hit 8.31bn kWh in the context of rising gas and coal prices when coal and gas thermal power output plunged. Vinacomin and Dong Bac pledged to supply enough coal for remaining months when total coal volume supplied to power plants is expected to reach 43.99mn tonnes. The nuclear power plant and Block B - O Mon projects are considered to be resumed to meet surging power demand.
10
6月
The management sets conservative guidance when it targets the output of 4.34bn kWh (+35% yoy), revenue of VND8,129bn (+32% yoy), and PAT of VND468bn (-12% yoy). NT2 is going to pay a 15% cash dividend at par for 2022F. In 1Q22, NT2 recorded a splendid result with a VND2,006bn (+22% yoy) and a VND159.6bn (+38.9% yoy), fulfilling 25%/34% annual guidance. 2Q22’s net profit is predicted to exceed 20% of quarterly plan. NT2 expects to enjoy better results in 2022F and a spectacular result since 2024F when its assets reach full depreciation.
Based on our estimates, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of listed T&G and yarn companies perked up 32.6%/22.6% yoy while NPATMI soared 71.5%/ 22.3% yoy, respectively. Top companies include VGG (+550% yoy), HTG (+247.6% yoy), and VGT (+102% yoy). 2Q is a typical peak period when production begins for the next fall/winter season. Inventory assets swelled 24.5% yoy as of end-1Q22 in T&G companies, and this demonstrates healthy conditions among clients. Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover in Apr 2022 sustains the revival growth of 28.4% yoy and 3.6% mom to USD3.1bn. Revenue recovery could ramp up in 2Q22F for T&G segments.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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