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Market commentary: Intraday divergence

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08

9月

Market commentary: Intraday divergence

Selling pressure comes back again at the important resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts, causing the stock market to slow down. The VNIndex decreases slightly with liquidity still at a high level, showing investors’s caution sentiment toward the market. However, the uptrend is still intact as this index maintains to close above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open long positions and focus on leading stocks.

Report (355)

07

9月

Market commentary: New peak this year

The stock market remains to rise strongly in the session with high liquidity, indicating buying signals. Although consolidation sessions may appear around the important resistance level of 1,240 - 1,250 pts, an uptrend is still present as the VNIndex closes above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open again long positions and focus on the leading stocks.

Report (355)

07

9月

ETF Review: FTSE Vietnam Index adds VIX

The FTSE Rusell announced that the FTSE Vietnam Index will add VIX, but not remove any tickers in this review. Accordingly, we expect that FTSE Vietnam ETF will sell HPG and VRE the most with 16.9 million shares and 6.4 million shares, based on data as of 6 Sep 2023. On the buy-side, VIX, VND, and VNM will be bought heavily with 12.6 million shares, 9.2 million shares, and 5.7 million shares. The new weights will be effective on 17 Sep 2023.

Report (203)

06

9月

Market commentary: Wait for the confirmation signal

The stock market has the 5th consecutive gaining session with high liquidity, showing positive signals. In the short term, the VNIndex has retested the previous resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts. If this index successfully surpasses with high liquidity, the uptrend will be confirmed. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.

Report (355)

06

9月

Fundflow 28-31 Aug: Outflow remains across Vietnam

In general, outflow across Vietnam’s ETF intensified strongly while demand experienced a substantial decline. In this case, selling pressure may present the next time, however, an expectation that demand will still maintain on some major ETFs in the context that the stock market is showing positive movements.

Report (86)

05

9月

Market commentary: Optimistic before the holiday

The stock market increases strongly during the session with improved liquidity, indicating investors' sentiment become more optimistic. Furthermore, the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average. However, this is not a reliable buying signal as despite the improvement, the liquidity is still at a normal level. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.

Report (355)

05

9月

Chart of the day: Upward resumption phase

In this scenario, investors could open the long positions on leading stocks. However, margin trading needs to be avoided due to the respected 1,240 pts zone.

Report (137)

30

8月

Market commentary: Intraday divergence

The stock market slows down after a sharp rising session with improved liquidity, indicating investors’ hesitation sentiment. In the next time, if the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average with high liquidity, the bullish trend can come back. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.

Report (355)

29

8月

Fundflow 21-25 Aug: Vietnam keeps experiencing the outflow

In general, outflow across Vietnam’s ETF intensified strongly while an absence of signs of demand resurgence. In this case, selling pressure could be active in upcoming weeks due to the high level of divestment as well as demand has low probability to fade supply in the short-term.

Report (86)

29

8月

Market commentary: Close above the 1,200-pts threshold

The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex remains above 1,200-pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed on August 18, 2023 may be not right.

Report (355)
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24

8月

U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports

U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.

Report (198)

02

8月

An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds

July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.

Report (197)

28

7月

Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum

Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.

Report (195)

13

7月

3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity

Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.

Report (197)

30

6月

Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges

GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.

Report (195)

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