08
9月
Selling pressure comes back again at the important resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts, causing the stock market to slow down. The VNIndex decreases slightly with liquidity still at a high level, showing investors’s caution sentiment toward the market. However, the uptrend is still intact as this index maintains to close above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open long positions and focus on leading stocks.
07
9月
The stock market remains to rise strongly in the session with high liquidity, indicating buying signals. Although consolidation sessions may appear around the important resistance level of 1,240 - 1,250 pts, an uptrend is still present as the VNIndex closes above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open again long positions and focus on the leading stocks.
06
9月
The stock market has the 5th consecutive gaining session with high liquidity, showing positive signals. In the short term, the VNIndex has retested the previous resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts. If this index successfully surpasses with high liquidity, the uptrend will be confirmed. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
05
9月
The stock market increases strongly during the session with improved liquidity, indicating investors' sentiment become more optimistic. Furthermore, the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average. However, this is not a reliable buying signal as despite the improvement, the liquidity is still at a normal level. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
05
9月
In this scenario, investors could open the long positions on leading stocks. However, margin trading needs to be avoided due to the respected 1,240 pts zone.
30
8月
The stock market slows down after a sharp rising session with improved liquidity, indicating investors’ hesitation sentiment. In the next time, if the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average with high liquidity, the bullish trend can come back. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
29
8月
The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex remains above 1,200-pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed on August 18, 2023 may be not right.
28
8月
In this scenario, investors should decrease their long positions to the safety threshold and await buying signals.
28
8月
In the short term, the downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex surpasses the important resistance level of 1,200 pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed on August 18, 2023 may be not right.
25
8月
The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex still ends below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce the portion of stock in their portfolios and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex surpasses the important resistance level of 1,200 pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed at the end of the previous week may be not right.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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