20
10月
The stock market has a 4th consecutive deep loss session by more than 1%, indicating selling pressure is still present. The downside risk is intact as the VNIndex remains to end below the 200-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
18
10月
The big sell orders in the ATC sessions causes the stock market to experience a 2nd consecutive deep loss session. Selling pressure suddenly intensifies again with the VNIndex maintaining to close below the 50-period moving average, indicating the downside risk is intact. However, the important support level of the 1,100-pts threshold is still not breakout. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements. The next time, if VNIndex breaks the above support level with high liquidity, investors should start to reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold.
17
10月
The stock market encounters difficulties when the VNIndex approaches the strong resistance zone of 1,150-1,160 points, indicating selling pressure is still present and quite significant. The downside risk is intact due to this index maintaining to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stand aside and wait for the next signal. The next time, if the VNIndex surpasses the above resistance zone, investors can open again exploratory long positions and focus on leading stocks.
13
10月
The stock market closes around the reference points with improved liquidity, indicating investors’ sentiment is still quite cautious. Moreover, the downside risk is still present as the VNIndex maintains to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
10
10月
Despite the second consecutive growth session, the downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex maintains to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
09
10月
The stock market recoveries slightly during the session with low liquidity, showing investors’ sentiment is still quite cautious. The downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex maintains to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
09
10月
Short-term correction period is confirmed and the bullish swing could not come back in the short-term. Besides, market leg is still unclear and demand is weak. Thus, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for more valid signal for the upcoming trend.
06
10月
Selling pressure comes back in the afternoon, causing the stock market to have a deep loss session and approach the important support zone of 1,080-1,100 pts. However, the liquidity is still at a low level, indicating selling pressure has decreased significantly, compared to previous deep decline sessions. The downside risk is intact due to the VNIndex maintain end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
05
10月
Demand comes back at the important support level of the 1,100-pts threshold, helping the stock market increase again. However, the liquidity is only recorded at a low level, showing inflow is still weak and investors’ cautious sentiment toward the market. The downside risk is intact due to the VNIndex maintain end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
04
10月
Selling pressure intensifies suddenly during the session, causing the stock market to experience a deep loss day again with improved significant liquidity. Besides, the VNIndex still closes above the 50-period moving average, showing the downside risk is intact. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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