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5M26: Economic landscape turns gloomier as inflation acceleratesVietnam’s economy continued to expand in May, but the underlying picture became increasingly challenging as the Middle East conflict remained unresolved. Inflation accelerated further, with elevated energy prices gradually spilling over into a broader range of goods and services, pushing up costs across the economy. Trade activity also came under pressure, as rising freight, insurance, and energy import costs contributed to a widening trade deficit. While retail sales continued to grow, part of the increase likely reflected higher prices rather than a meaningful improvement in consumer purchasing power. The main bright spot remained FDI, with both registered and disbursed capital posting strong growth. Overall, the economy is showing clearer signs of strain from persistent geopolitical tensions, and if the Middle East crisis drags on, these pressures could intensify and pose a more meaningful challenge to Vietnam’s growth outlook in the second half of the year.PDFMacro-5M26-Eng-Final

June 3, 2026

4M26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures

Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in April, supported by accelerating industrial production, stable domestic consumption, and sustained FDI inflows. However, external momentum showed signs of softening, with export growth beginning to plateau as early-year order buffers fade. While overall activity continued to expand, downside risks are becoming more visible, particularly through rising inflation driven by geopolitical tensions, with rising input costs as the primary driver of broad-based price pressures across most goods, potentially constraining policy flexibility and posing risks to Vietnam’s growth targets.PDFMacro-4M26-Eng-Final

May 4, 2026

3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester

Vietnam’s economic performance in March and the first quarter showed solid momentum. Trade and industrial production remained resilient, while consumption stayed robust, supported by record tourist arrivals. FDI inflows were a key highlight, recording impressive growth. GDP expanded by 7.83% in 1Q26 — marking the highest first-quarter growth in over a decade, even as the pace moderated slightly from the previous quarter, these impressive figures continue to paint a bright and promising picture so far. However, downside risks are emerging more rapidly and severely than expected. Inflation accelerated sharply in March, almost single-handedly driven by surging energy prices amid the persistent tensions in the Middle East. Should the energy crisis persist, inflationary pressures could intensify further and spill over to other goods and services. This, in turn, risks adding a somber dark shade to the bright economic canvas that has been so promisingly painted and poses challenges to Vietnam’s ambitious double-digit growth target—especially as even stronger growth will be needed in the coming quarters to sustain the current trajectory.PDFMacro-3M26-Eng-Final

April 6, 2026

2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks

The latest socio-economic report indicates that economic activity in Vietnam slowed noticeably in February, largely due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Industrial production and trade volumes softened during this period as many businesses temporarily suspended or reduced operations to accommodate family gatherings and festive preparations. Meanwhile, inflation picked up more clearly, driven by stronger consumer demand ahead of the celebrations, particularly for food, goods, and services, although these seasonal price pressures are expected to ease gradually and return to normal levels in the coming months as the holiday effects fade. Looking ahead, external risks are intensifying amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. These developments could drive commodity prices higher, primarily through supply disruptions and pass-through effects on global energy prices, thereby raising inflation risks in the period ahead. Should these pressures persist, they would pose additional challenges to the global economic outlook, with direct implications for Vietnam’s economy in the coming months.PDFMacro-2M26-Eng-Final

March 6, 2026

1M26: A positive start ahead of the Lunar New Year

Vietnam’s early-year economic indicators point to a constructive start. Export growth was supported by a higher number of working days compared with the same period last year, although demand remained partly shaped by Lunar New Year–related consumption patterns. Retail sales posted strong growth, underscoring resilient domestic demand and suggesting solid momentum heading into the peak holiday season. Industrial production continued to expand, while inflationary pressures remained well contained, providing a stable macroeconomic backdrop for the period ahead.

February 6, 2026

12M25: The Dawn of National Rise

Vietnam’s economy recorded a strong acceleration toward year-end, underpinned by the combined strength of domestic resilience and renewed momentum in external trade. Real GDP growth remained aligned with national targets, driven primarily by a robust rebound in exports, underscoring Vietnam’s sustained competitiveness despite persistent tariff-related pressures throughout the year. At the same time, record-high FDI disbursement reaffirmed the country’s attractiveness as a destination for global capital. Domestically, growth was supported by solid fundamentals, as industrial production and retail sales posted encouraging gains, while household consumption and hospitality services continued to serve as key pillars of expansion despite disruptions caused by natural disasters, with inflation remaining well contained. Overall, Vietnam closed a volatile 2025 on a resilient and well-anchored macroeconomic footing, setting the stage for the next phase of national ascent and more ambitious long-term objectives.PDFMacro-12M25-Eng-Final

January 6, 2026

11M25: Economic activity slows amid natural disasters

Vietnam’s economic landscape in November revealed both the destructive force of natural disasters and the resilience of the domestic economy in the face of climatic shocks. Most key indicators deteriorated, as export–import activity, FDI inflows and retail sales all reflected the tangible impact of floods and storms, while inflation accelerated sharply due to food price surges following widespread crop damage. Yet, despite these setbacks, the underlying momentum remains intact. The disruptions were largely temporary, with producer sentiment improving, tourism activity continuing to strengthen and industrial production maintaining a solid pace. As 2025 closes under the shadow of severe weather events, Vietnam’s steadfast internal fundamentals stand out as a source of stability after a turbulent year, providing grounds for optimism that clearer skies lie ahead.PDFMacro-11M25-Eng-Final

December 9, 2025

10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions

Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.PDFMacro-10M25-Eng

November 6, 2025

9M25: Growth stems from low-base effect

Vietnam’s economic indicators in September painted a notably upbeat picture, with most metrics signaling continued improvement. Most striking was the national GDP growth rate exceeding 8 percent, an impressive milestone that reinforces the government’s confidence in achieving its annual growth target. Part of this growth can be attributed to a low base effect, as economic activity in the same period last year was heavily disrupted by Typhoon Yagi. In addition, increased state budget spending, particularly in infrastructure and public services, also contributed to the overall momentum. This recovery was further supported by domestic fundamentals. Major national holidays such as Independence Day stimulated tourism and consumer demand, driving up sales of goods, services, and food items, while also revitalizing production activity. External factors also provided support. Exports continued to expand, aided by the dissipation of front-loading distortions, and foreign investment inflows remained positive as concerns over tariffs subsided. Altogether, these developments reaffirm that domestic drivers will remain the central pillar of Vietnam’s growth going forward—a foundation that will continue to underpin the economy’s progress in subsequent stages.PDFMacro-9M25-Eng-Final

October 7, 2025

8M25: Domestic demand takes the lead as external risks recede

The macroeconomic landscape of Vietnam in August continued to present a multifaceted picture. Specifically, FDI showed improvement compared to the same period last year, though the overall growth trend remained subdued. Similarly, trade activity sustained modest gains, but lingering effects of tariff-related disruptions continued to cap momentum. On the brighter side, industrial production rebounded as policy clarity over trade measures helped ease manufacturing headwinds. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained contained and well within the set target. These positive signals, combined with strong retail sales further boosted by the Independence Day holiday, continued to serve as the primary drivers of growth. Overall, as external uncertainties gradually diminish, Vietnam’s economic development is increasingly being shaped by its internal drivers.PDFMacro-8M25-Eng-Final

September 8, 2025

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3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence

GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.

April 8, 2025

2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors

Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.

March 6, 2025

1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance

Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.

February 6, 2025

12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end

The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.

January 6, 2025

1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption

In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.

December 30, 2024

11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges

November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.

December 6, 2024

10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath

GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.

November 6, 2024

9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports

GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.

October 7, 2024

8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles

The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.

September 6, 2024

7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports

GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI report

July 29, 2024

6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics

Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.

July 1, 2024

5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns

In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.

May 29, 2024

4M24: The bright economic picture as dynamics remain favorable

Vietnam’s April exports grew 10.60% YoY, led by electronics. Retail sales increased steadily by 9.04% YoY amid improving industrial employment, while headline inflation rose to 4.40% YoY, driven by surging gasoline prices.

May 2, 2024

3M24: Economic activities lose the acceleration steam

Vietnam’s 1Q24 GDP growth slowed to 5.66% YoY. However, March exports rose 14.19% YoY, securing a 13-month trade surplus, while headline inflation eased to 3.97% YoY as food demand cooled post-Tet.

March 29, 2024

2M24: Economic performance leans on external forces

Vietnam's February exports dipped 4.73% YoY due to Tet, but 2M24 exports grew 19.24%. Retail sales rose 8.49% YoY, while manufacturing-led registered FDI soared 36.80% annually to USD1.93bn.

February 29, 2024

12M23: Domestic output accelerates on the external recovery

Vietnam’s 4Q23 GDP grew 6.72% YoY, driven by industrial and services recovery. December exports rose 13.37% YoY, led by electronics, while year-end registered FDI tripled, boosted by a major LNG project.

December 30, 2023

11M23: Domestic consumption solidifies the economic acceleration

In November, Vietnam's exports grew 6.73% YoY, driven by electronics and agriculture. Retail sales achieved double-digit growth at 10.10% YoY, while headline inflation rose marginally to 3.45% YoY.

November 29, 2023

10M23: Economic acceleration on external hopes

In October, Vietnam's exports grew 5.90% YoY, led by electronics. Newly registered FDI surged by 49.84% YoY to USD5.06bn, while headline inflation cooled slightly to 3.59% YoY due to lower fuel prices.

October 30, 2023

9M23: Gaining momentum on easing global challenges

Vietnam’s 3Q23 GDP grew 5.33% YoY as industrial activities improved. September trade returned to growth with a 4.57% export increase, while headline inflation surged to 3.66% YoY, driven by education fees.

October 1, 2023

8M23: Internal factors speak out on the lack of external support

In August, Vietnam's exports declined 7.60% YoY due to weak electronics demand. Retail sales accelerated moderately to 7.57% YoY, while headline CPI rose to 2.96% YoY, driven by oil and rice prices.

August 29, 2023

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