Market Analysis
23W26: SBV withdraws liquidity while interbank rates divergeIn 23W26, the SBV shifts to a net liquidity withdrawal from the banking system. Besides, interbank rates record a divergence across tenors as short tenors decrease while longer terms increase, accompanied by a notable decline in trading activity. In the FX market, USDVND continues to trade sideways with an upward bias, supported by hawkish Fed expectations. Meanwhile, persistent foreign outflows, as global capital continues to rotate away from emerging markets, are adding further pressure to the USDVND outlook in the coming periods.PDFFI-23W26-Eng
June 8, 2026
22W26: SBV ramps up repo injections
In 22W26, the SBV actively steps up its supportive stance by recording a significant net liquidity injection into the banking system to alleviate temporary tight conditions. This intervention follows a sharp surge in short term interbank rates, which jump alongside expanding trading value due to intensifying funding needs. On the FX market, USDVND reverses its upward trend and moves lower as the greenback weakens on Middle East ceasefire extension progress.PDFFI-22W26-EngJune 1, 2026
SBV continues net liquidity withdrawal
This week on the open market operations, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week, albeit at a moderate level, helping to reduce pressure from maturing repo contracts while still tightening liquidity conditions in the interbank market. Specifically, interbank rates rose notably at the short end of the curve, accompanied by a decline in trading volume, signalling tighter liquidity conditions within the banking system. On the FX market, USDVND moves sideways as the greenback consolidates amid shifting Middle East headlines and persistent U.S. inflation concerns from high fuel costs, which keep the Fed’s policy expectations largely hawkish. Despite the stabilizing global dollar, USDVND edges slightly higher due to continuous pressure from foreign capital outflows as foreign investors extend their net selling streak on the HoSE.PDFFI-21W26-EngMay 25, 2026
21W26: SBV continues net liquidity withdrawal
This week on the open market operations, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week, albeit at a moderate level, helping to reduce pressure from maturing repo contracts while still tightening liquidity conditions in the interbank market. Specifically, interbank rates rose notably at the short end of the curve, accompanied by a decline in trading volume, signalling tighter liquidity conditions within the banking system. On the FX market, USDVND moves sideways as the greenback consolidates amid shifting Middle East headlines and persistent U.S. inflation concerns from high fuel costs, which keep the Fed’s policy expectations largely hawkish. Despite the stabilizing global dollar, USDVND edges slightly higher due to continuous pressure from foreign capital outflows as foreign investors extend their net selling streak on the HoSE.PDFFI-21W26-EngMay 25, 2026
20W26: FX pressure continues as inflationary pressures intensify
In 20W26, the SBV shifts to a modest net liquidity withdrawal from the banking system to balance systemic positions. This cautious absorption of excess funds drives short-term interbank rates slightly higher, while longer-term rates remains unchanged as mid-term liquidity remains ample. On the FX market, USDVND rebounded sharply as the greenback strengthened, driven by mounting inflation expectations stemming from energy supply disruptions while the Iran war continued with no clear resolution in sight. Rising inflationary pressures have increasingly overshadowed the Fed’s easing scenario and fueled concerns over a higher-for-longer interest rate environment in the period ahead.PDFFI-20W26-EngMay 18, 2026
19W26: SBV continues net liquidity injection and interbank rates cool down
In 19W26, the SBV continues its net liquidity injection for a third consecutive week at a moderate level to maintain system stability. Additionally, interbank rates have cooled down following recent liquidity injections before the holiday. On the FX front, USDVND reverses its upward trend, tracking the weakening greenback as market sentiment is boosted by hopes of geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East. Despite the softening exchange rate, foreign investors extend their net selling streak on the HoSE to an eighth consecutive week.PDFFI-19W26-EngMay 11, 2026
18W26: SBV maintains net liquidity injection as funding demand spikes
In 18W26, SBV maintains liquidity injections, albeit at a moderate level, to the banking system during holiday week. Specifically, interbank rates rise on short tenors due to increased funding demand ahead of the holiday, while longer-term rates remain stable. In the FX market, USDVND edges higher despite a softening greenback, driven by holiday-related domestic demand and persistent foreign net selling in the equity market.PDFFI-18W26-EngMay 6, 2026
17W26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures
Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in April, supported by accelerating industrial production, stable domestic consumption, and sustained FDI inflows. However, external momentum showed signs of softening, with export growth beginning to plateau as early-year order buffers fade. While overall activity continued to expand, downside risks are becoming more visible, particularly through rising inflation driven by geopolitical tensions, with rising input costs as the primary driver of broad-based price pressures across most goods, potentially constraining policy flexibility and posing risks to Vietnam’s growth targets.PDFFI-17W26-EngMay 4, 2026
16W26: SBV continues net withdrawal as demand cools
This week, the SBV extended its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week at a strong pace, as funding demand eased. Interbank rates declined across tenors alongside lower trading volumes, signalling a continued cooling in liquidity demand, while USDVND entered a consolidation phase. On the FX front, USDVND edged slightly higher despite a softer greenback, as easing tensions in the Middle East reduced upward pressure on the U.S. dollar.PDFFI-16W26-EngApril 21, 2026
15W26: SBV shifts to net liquidity withdrawal as demand cools down
In 15W26, the SBV shifts to a net liquidity withdrawal from the banking system following a week of strong injections, as funding demand begins to cool down. Consequently, interbank rates exhibit a diverging trend; short end rates rise due to heavy repo maturities, while longer term rates decrease slightly as mid-term liquidity remains stable. On the FX front, USDVND edges lower after six consecutive weeks of gains, tracking a significant softening of the greenback as U.S.–Iran tensions enter a negotiation phase and global energy prices decline.PDFFI-15W26-EngApril 13, 2026
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3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.April 8, 2025
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.March 6, 2025
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.February 6, 2025
12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end
The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.January 6, 2025
1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption
In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.December 30, 2024
11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges
November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.December 6, 2024
10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath
GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.November 6, 2024
9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports
GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.October 7, 2024
8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles
The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.September 6, 2024
7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports
GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI reportJuly 29, 2024
6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics
Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.July 1, 2024
5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns
In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.May 29, 2024
4M24: The bright economic picture as dynamics remain favorable
Vietnam’s April exports grew 10.60% YoY, led by electronics. Retail sales increased steadily by 9.04% YoY amid improving industrial employment, while headline inflation rose to 4.40% YoY, driven by surging gasoline prices.May 2, 2024
3M24: Economic activities lose the acceleration steam
Vietnam’s 1Q24 GDP growth slowed to 5.66% YoY. However, March exports rose 14.19% YoY, securing a 13-month trade surplus, while headline inflation eased to 3.97% YoY as food demand cooled post-Tet.March 29, 2024
2M24: Economic performance leans on external forces
Vietnam's February exports dipped 4.73% YoY due to Tet, but 2M24 exports grew 19.24%. Retail sales rose 8.49% YoY, while manufacturing-led registered FDI soared 36.80% annually to USD1.93bn.February 29, 2024
12M23: Domestic output accelerates on the external recovery
Vietnam’s 4Q23 GDP grew 6.72% YoY, driven by industrial and services recovery. December exports rose 13.37% YoY, led by electronics, while year-end registered FDI tripled, boosted by a major LNG project.December 30, 2023
11M23: Domestic consumption solidifies the economic acceleration
In November, Vietnam's exports grew 6.73% YoY, driven by electronics and agriculture. Retail sales achieved double-digit growth at 10.10% YoY, while headline inflation rose marginally to 3.45% YoY.November 29, 2023
10M23: Economic acceleration on external hopes
In October, Vietnam's exports grew 5.90% YoY, led by electronics. Newly registered FDI surged by 49.84% YoY to USD5.06bn, while headline inflation cooled slightly to 3.59% YoY due to lower fuel prices.October 30, 2023
9M23: Gaining momentum on easing global challenges
Vietnam’s 3Q23 GDP grew 5.33% YoY as industrial activities improved. September trade returned to growth with a 4.57% export increase, while headline inflation surged to 3.66% YoY, driven by education fees.October 1, 2023
8M23: Internal factors speak out on the lack of external support
In August, Vietnam's exports declined 7.60% YoY due to weak electronics demand. Retail sales accelerated moderately to 7.57% YoY, while headline CPI rose to 2.96% YoY, driven by oil and rice prices.August 29, 2023
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3M25: Steady growth before global turbulence
GSO’s March statistics show that Vietnam’s economy continued to grow steadily ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Domestic drivers such as retail sales and public investment accelerated further, serving as key pillars supporting the government's efforts to meet its 2025 targets. Meanwhile, exports and FDI revealed early signs of caution from foreign investors, reflecting growing concerns over potential value chain disruptions stemming from escalating trade tensions. The strong growth in March exports to the U.S. likely reflects a front-loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Similarly, the sharp rise in registered FDI may signal increased efforts by multinational companies to diversify their production bases. Looking ahead, the elevated tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are expected to weigh on economic performance of the country in terms of trade activities, foreign investment, and employment. Consequently, Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects will hinge heavily on the outcomes of high-level dialogues between the two countries and the government’s ability to steer the economy through an increasingly volatile global environment.April 8, 2025
2M25: Economic activities maintain momentum on domestic factors
Vietnam’s economic momentum remains strong, with domestic consumption emerging as the primary driver, according to GSO’s February report. While export turnover and export-driven industrial production grew at a slower pace compared to December 2024, likely reflecting the worsening new order situation highlighted in recent PMI reports, domestic consumption continued its acceleration. Retail sales expanded by 9% YoY in February, sustaining the momentum seen during the Tet holiday. For the first two months of 2025, domestic sales of goods and services outpaced the growth rate recorded in December, potentially fueled by increased hiring, particularly in the construction sector, alongside the government’s commitment to boosting infrastructure investment. Looking ahead, we expect internal factors, such as a strengthening labor market and robust public investment, to play a leading role in driving economic growth. In contrast, export performance remains uncertain, given the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on global trade dynamics.March 6, 2025
1M25: Tet may mask a stronger economic performance
Vietnam’s economy showed resilience in January despite global trade war concerns. Accounting for a 22.7% reduction in working days due to Tet, our analysis suggests that export activities and industrial production remained robust. Furthermore, both implemented and registered FDI saw meaningful growth, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a favored destination for foreign investors amid rising global uncertainties. On the downside, a 9.5% increase in retail sales during Tet raises concerns about domestic purchasing power. However, we expect gradual improvement as the labor market strengthens, supported by steady growth in the construction sector seen in recent months.February 6, 2025
12M24: A brighter economic picture at year-end
The December economic report underscores a brighter performance in the final months of the year following a sluggish period marked by high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports regained growth momentum, likely as U.S. companies accelerated imports to mitigate potential tariff risks ahead of Donald Trump's second presidential term. FDI also stood out as a highlight, with implementation figures reaching a record high in December. Domestically, jobs in the industrial sector continued to grow this month, possibly attributed to the acceleration in total retail sales, driving a rebound in retail sales and boosting shopping and tourism activities. This recovery strengthened consumer confidence and fueled an uptick in spending. These combined factors paint a more optimistic economic picture after months of stagnation caused by global macroeconomic challenges and natural disasters, setting the stage for a promising start to the new year.January 6, 2025
1M24: Strong trade’s acceleration momentum amid the weak domestic consumption
In January 2024, Vietnam's exports surged 41.98% YoY, driving strong trade momentum. Headline inflation cooled to 3.37% YoY, while registered FDI grew 40.2% annually to USD2.36bn, heavily focused on real estate.December 30, 2024
11M24: An economic slowdown on external challenges
November economic report underscores early developments in a time of high global uncertainty. On the external front, exports slowed down further as overseas orders waned, as noted in recent PMI reports. FDI also saw a downturn in both implementation and registration, with multinational corporations likely adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over potential universal tariffs under President Trump's administration, which could reshape global value chains and trade flows. Domestically, retail sales slightly decelerated, as rising electricity and rental costs, coupled with stalled improvements in industrial labor hiring, have constrained consumers' purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending. These combined factors illustrate the multifaceted pressures Vietnam faces as it navigates an evolving economic landscape shaped by global challenges.December 6, 2024
10M24: Vietnam economic activities decelerate on Yagi Typhoon aftermath
GSO’s October report shows that Vietnam's economy has slowed down in several aspects due to the lingering impact of natural disasters in the previous month. The export value grows softer, and domestic consumption faces a tighter supply side with decelerating retail sales and food and foodstuff-driven inflation. Furthermore, foreign investors seem to await the U.S. presidential election with the high uncertainty in tariffs and trade policies. Hence, disbursed FDI recorded a lower growth rate, and the registered amount even experienced a substantial reduction. For future development, we predict domestic consumption could contribute more to economic activities as the labor market in the Southern region has become warmer. Additionally, the performance of exports tends to be more uncertain as possible U.S. trade barriers might arise following the new presidents.November 6, 2024
9M24: Vietnam economy preserves acceleration momentum on exports
GSO’s September could provide an optimistic sentiment for investors with higher-than-expected economic growth, a steady export value, a steady FDI disbursement, and soft inflation despite the Yagi typhoon in September was estimated to cause nontrivial economic losses. Most notably, real GDP grew 7.40% YoY this quarter, 0.31ppts-higher than 2Q24 and 1.31ppts-higher than the market consensus. The 3Q24 economic performance leads government goals, pointed out in the 01/NQ-CP Resolution, to be more achievable. Generally, growth engines remain favorable this month with the expanding export value, especially in the FDI bloc, primarily driving the economic output to accelerate. On the downside, domestic consumption persisted depressed, and Yagi-damaged agricultural and fishery output could put upward pressure on inflation.October 7, 2024
8M24: Economic drivers preserve their roles
The economic situation in August continued to develop in the trajectory seen in two recent months. While export performance remains solid with a double-digit growth rate for the sixth consecutive month, the domestic consumption, represented by the retail sales, was somewhat worrisome with a deceleration. For the next month, the contribution of exports could be lower in the face of rising competition from cheap Chinese goods. Hence, we predict that economic activities would modestly decelerate as domestic buyers need more time to regain full confidence.September 6, 2024
7M24: Moving forward on the favorable exports
GSO’s July report showed exports extended the recovery momentum, even growing faster as the number of orders in June surged to the highest level since March 2011, according to the latest PMI reportJuly 29, 2024
6M24: Economic acceleration on external dynamics
Vietnam’s 2Q24 GDP grew 6.92% YoY, driven by investment and inventory recovery. Meanwhile, June inflation hit 4.34% YoY, and FDI registration surged by 59.82%, signaling strong economic momentum.July 1, 2024
5M24: Favorable external conditions but raising internal concerns
In May 2024, Vietnam's imports grew 29.84% YoY, outstripping a 16.57% export increase. Retail sales re-accelerated by 9.48% YoY, while headline inflation rose to 4.44% YoY, driven by pork and electricity.May 29, 2024
4M24: The bright economic picture as dynamics remain favorable
Vietnam’s April exports grew 10.60% YoY, led by electronics. Retail sales increased steadily by 9.04% YoY amid improving industrial employment, while headline inflation rose to 4.40% YoY, driven by surging gasoline prices.May 2, 2024
3M24: Economic activities lose the acceleration steam
Vietnam’s 1Q24 GDP growth slowed to 5.66% YoY. However, March exports rose 14.19% YoY, securing a 13-month trade surplus, while headline inflation eased to 3.97% YoY as food demand cooled post-Tet.March 29, 2024
2M24: Economic performance leans on external forces
Vietnam's February exports dipped 4.73% YoY due to Tet, but 2M24 exports grew 19.24%. Retail sales rose 8.49% YoY, while manufacturing-led registered FDI soared 36.80% annually to USD1.93bn.February 29, 2024
12M23: Domestic output accelerates on the external recovery
Vietnam’s 4Q23 GDP grew 6.72% YoY, driven by industrial and services recovery. December exports rose 13.37% YoY, led by electronics, while year-end registered FDI tripled, boosted by a major LNG project.December 30, 2023
11M23: Domestic consumption solidifies the economic acceleration
In November, Vietnam's exports grew 6.73% YoY, driven by electronics and agriculture. Retail sales achieved double-digit growth at 10.10% YoY, while headline inflation rose marginally to 3.45% YoY.November 29, 2023
10M23: Economic acceleration on external hopes
In October, Vietnam's exports grew 5.90% YoY, led by electronics. Newly registered FDI surged by 49.84% YoY to USD5.06bn, while headline inflation cooled slightly to 3.59% YoY due to lower fuel prices.October 30, 2023
9M23: Gaining momentum on easing global challenges
Vietnam’s 3Q23 GDP grew 5.33% YoY as industrial activities improved. September trade returned to growth with a 4.57% export increase, while headline inflation surged to 3.66% YoY, driven by education fees.October 1, 2023
8M23: Internal factors speak out on the lack of external support
In August, Vietnam's exports declined 7.60% YoY due to weak electronics demand. Retail sales accelerated moderately to 7.57% YoY, while headline CPI rose to 2.96% YoY, driven by oil and rice prices.August 29, 2023