10M25: National growth target clouded by climatic disruptions

Vietnam’s economic landscape entering the final quarter of 2025 is crucial, as it will determine whether the government’s ambitious growth target can be achieved. Following a robust third quarter, the economy has once again faced challenges similar to last year, with consecutive typhoons disrupting business activity. The effects of these disruptions are already beginning to show: while industrial production, trade, and retail sales still recorded growth, the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, inflation edged higher, largely driven by rising food prices in the typhoon-affected regions. The sole bright spot came from FDI, which continued to improve as earlier tariff risks have subsided. Nevertheless, as climatic disruptions persist, these shocks could raise concerns about Vietnam’s prospects of meeting its full-year objective.