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Traders should be careful and wait for the next signal in this situation. Besides, they should reduce long positions and stay on the sidelines.

According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in Jan, fertilizer export volume rose significantly to reach 370,000 tonnes (+192% yoy and +147% mom), while the export value grew strongly to USD299mn (+682% yoy and +172% mom), mainly due to the increase in global selling prices. On average, the export price was USD808/tonne (+170 yoy and +10% mom) in Jan.

In 4Q21, 24 top listed seafood exporters reached VND13,862bn (-2.2% yoy) in 4Q21. Of which, revenue of listed pangasius exporters surged by +7.6% yoy in 4Q21 and revenue of listed shrimp exporter decreased by -12.4% yoy, mainly by the deceleration of MPC 4Q21 performance, accounting for largest revenue contribution in listed exporters with 21%, by VND2,931bn (-32.7% yoy).

Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of 23 listed hydropower companies jumped 22.5% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI increased by 32.9% yoy. Due to the waning effect of La Nina in the north, EVN will shift its focus to coal thermal plants to ensure power supply. The HFO Singapore, a reference for gas price supplied to domestic gas-fired power plants could spike in 1Q22F due to supply shortage and Russia – Ukraine tension. We think EVN will prioritize the cheaper coal-fired power plants driven by their lower than gas supply price. Thus, we expect the revenue of coal-fired plants stays solid than gas-fired firms in 1Q22F.

Long position on VN30F2203 should continue to be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,500 pts level.

The VNIndex closed below the 1,500-pts threshold, implying the downside risk. Therefore, traders should be careful and stay on the sidelines until the next bullish signals.

VNM posted 4Q21 results with a VND15.8tn revenue (+9.7% yoy) and a VND2.2tn NPATMI (+0.5% yoy), prompting revenue of VND60.9tn (+2.2% yoy) and NPATMI of VND10.5tn (-5.1% yoy) in 2021. The 4Q21 revenue growth was the best quarterly performance in the 5 past years thanks to a 7.4% yoy domestic revenue partially driven by the low base seen in 4Q20 (flooding in the Central). We are reviewing our forecast of earnings growth in 2022F-24F, target price, and ratings. Currently, we rate VNM as HOLD given the fact that Vinamilk’s prospect is fairly priced at a cash dividend yield of 5% and a forward PE of 16x

Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of listed milk companies, brew and sugar grew by 9.8%, 7.7%, and 26.4% yoy, respectively. The 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI of dairy and sugar producers increased by 4.2% and 15% yoy, respectively. Meanwhile, the NPATMI growth of listed beer companies was softer at -19.7% yoy after bottoming at -66% in 3Q21 due to tepid domestic demand in the lockdown period. Most producers have plans to increase selling prices in 1Q22F to make up for the higher input costs. Big players such as VNM, SAB have just increased prices by about 3-5% in late Dec 2021 and that will support GMs in 1Q22F.

Long position on VN30F2203 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,500 pts level.

Despite closing above the 1,510-pts threshold, the market sentiment has become cautious due to low liquidity. That means the downside risk. Therefore, traders should be careful and stay on the sidelines until the next bullish signals.