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According to the MoIT, fertilizer export volume in Feb fell dramatically to 50,000 tonnes (-86% mom and -44% yoy), leading the export value down to USD26mn ( -91% mom and -7% yoy). On average, the export price was USD520/tonne (+67 yoy and -36% mom) in Feb. We believe that the reason for the cutting down export volume mainly comes from Government’s effort in stabilizing domestic fertilizer prices and stockpiling fertilizer to ensure supply for the upcoming Summer-Autumn crop.

The February performance witnessed the surprising comeback of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 60,140 tonnes (+41.1% mom, +150.7% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 43,588 tonnes (+97.7% mom and +88.7% yoy).

Although there is the downtrend, but rebound phase is still active. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and repair to open short positions which would occur after the rebound phase.

In the short term, the VNIndex has retested the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, implying the downside risk. The target price of the pattern may be around the 1,350-pts zone. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.

The VNIndex has retested the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. However, the downside risk is still intact as the target price of the pattern may be around the 1,350-pts zone. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.

Rebound phase steps in, but the downtrend is still active. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and repair to open short positions on the upcoming contract.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Feb 2022 Vietnam steel production increased 2% mom to 2.41mn tonnes. During Feb 22, we observed the revival of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday.

The February performance witnessed the surprising comeback of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 20,524 tonnes (+40.4% mom, +110.4% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 15,380 tonnes (+32.9% mom and +31.9% yoy).

Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.

Although there is the intraday rebound, the trend is still downward. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and new short position should be opened later.