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28
3月
Chart of the day: Retest 1,510-pts threshold
Despite the bullish market, the VNIndex is sideways and needs bullish signals to confirm the uptrend due to low liquidity.
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28
3月
Daily derivatives: Range bound
The 1,500 pts zone is still respected which means the previous bullish swing is not strong enough to fade the downtrend and the next market leg is still unclear. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for accurate trading signal due to the increase of volatility level in upcoming sessions.
25
3月
Market commentary: Selling pressure on Financial stocks
Based on the second bearish session, the downside risk is still intact. Besides, selling pressure appears at the 1,510-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.
25
3月
Daily derivatives: Consolidation phase steps in
The 1,500 pts zone is still respected which means the previous bullish swing is not strong enough to fade the downtrend. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for accurate trading signal due to the increase of volatility level in upcoming sessions.
25
3月
Seafood – Sector Brief – More competitive in US market as POR17 duty
On 21th Mar 2022, The US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of 17th period of review (POR 17) on pangasius exported to US market. Accordingly, anti-dumping duty is at USD0/kg for 4 pangasius exporters. As more exporters (Van Duc Tien Giang and NFTS as additional exporters) to enjoy zero anti-dumping tax could impact positively to Vietnam pangasius industry.
24
3月
Intensified stress in short-term rates spreads into Fixed-income markets
The early months of 2022 witnessed a big shift in the overall interest rate conditions across the fixed-income markets, including the interbank rates and bond markets, from around record-low levels on the way back to pre-pandemic levels. Although the upward pressure is lasting longer than our expectation, the nature of some of the pressure is characterized as short-lived and is expected to be fading out in the coming months.
24
3月
Daily derivatives: All eyes on 1,500 pts area
The rebound phase is strenthened, but the short-term target for this phase is reached (1,500 pts area). Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for accurate trading signal.
24
3月
Market commentary: Intraday contraction
Selling pressure appears at the 1,510-pts threshold, implying the downside risk. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.
23
3月
Daily derivatives: Approaching the solid sell zone
The rebound phase is strenthened, but the short-term target for this phase is reached (1,500 pts area). Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for accurate trading signal.
23
3月
Market commentary: Selling pressure at 1,510-pts threshold
In the short term, the VNIndex closes above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, implying a false pattern. However, the index retests the 1,510-pts zone, the strong resistance. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.
Featured Articles
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
An improved economic performance amidst easing external headwinds
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Vietnam’s economy: gaining momentum
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
3Q23 Strategic Insight: Embrace the opportunity
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
Slight pickup amidst persistent global challenges
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.