研究中心

Congress passed the new Insurance law 2022 on June 16th 2022. The draft of this new law was first introduced around February 2021 (refer here). After receiving feedback from experts at many meetings, the Law was approved with the rate of 94.18%. The effective date will be January 1st, 2023. In general, the new law retains the same ideas and spirit as the proposed draft, adding some clarifications and changes which are positive for sustainable development and long-term industry outlook.

Total electricity production in Jun was 24.52bn kWh (+5.1% mom, +2.6% yoy) and the 6M22 aggregate output volume went up to 133.1bn kWh (+3.6% yoy). The unexpectedly high level of rainfall in May and Jun, especially in the North amid the extremely hot season made the hydropower output surge to 11bn kWh in Jun (+33% mom, +71.3% yoy), which made the average free market price (FMP) in May dropped to VND1,136/kWh. It is predicted that there will be 10-12 typhoons and tropical depressions till the end of the year, thus the heavy rainfall is expected to occur in the 2H22F.

2Q22 trading value was down significantly. Combined 2Q22 ADTV on 3 bourses was VND20.5tn (-34.2% QoQ, -21.8% YoY). Contrast to unfavorable market movements in the second quarter, securities companies did a great job to gain an enormous number of accounts. In 2Q22 separately, there were 1.174mn new accounts (+73.6% QoQ, new high record established). The competition of securities companies in brokerage spotted interesting developments. VPS ended a 13-quarter streak with positive quarterly growth rates and HSC was back to Top 4 brokerage market share.

The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained optimistic with 16.5% yoy and 13.1% mom, to USD3.6bn in June. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.8bn, +13.1% yoy/+11.2% mom, accounting for 50.2% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 1H22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover soared 21.4% yoy to USD18.6bn.

In May 2022, seafood export recorded climbed 34% yoy and -6% mom to USD1,062mn. Shrimp and pangasius export increased 31% and 67% yoy in May. Shrimp export flatted as April, while pangasius export maintains rally increase yoy and dropped 20% mom compared to high based April export.

In Jun, rubber export gained the spotlight thanks to an amazing increase in both export volume and value. However, contrary to the expectation about boosting export output in the context of global food shortage fears, rice exports recorded a little bit shy result.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During May 22, we observed the weak demand in both domestic and export markets. We also continue to expect the temporary price retreat will end soon after COVID-19 restrictions ease in China.

Total insurance premium accumulated in 4M22 was pegged VND74,036bn (+14.1% yoy). Growth rate up to 4M22 for life insurance premium was 14.5% which continues to be less positive when compared to growth rate above 20% in 2020 and 2021. The losing growing momentum is claimed to delayed effect of COVID19. Having to be mentioned that the current pace is just weaker than one in previous period and we do not see any bad sign in long-term sector’s outlook.  Contrast to Life insurance, Non-life maintained an impressive growth rate. Particularly, 4M22 premium growth rate was 13%, much higher than 2020 and 2021 performance which is 6.2% and 3.98%, respectively. The main motivation comes from high-proportion products namely Health insurance as well as Motor vehicle insurance.

In May 2022, total electricity production was 23.34bn kWh (+3.2% mom, -2.7% yoy). Hydropower output also surged 47.9% yoy, 44.7% mom to hit 8.31bn kWh in the context of rising gas and coal prices when coal and gas thermal power output plunged. Vinacomin and Dong Bac pledged to supply enough coal for remaining months when total coal volume supplied to power plants is expected to reach 43.99mn tonnes. The nuclear power plant and Block B - O Mon projects are considered to be resumed to meet surging power demand.

Based on our estimates, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of listed T&G and yarn companies perked up 32.6%/22.6% yoy while NPATMI soared 71.5%/ 22.3% yoy, respectively. Top companies include VGG (+550% yoy), HTG (+247.6% yoy), and VGT (+102% yoy). 2Q is a typical peak period when production begins for the next fall/winter season. Inventory assets swelled 24.5% yoy as of end-1Q22 in T&G companies, and this demonstrates healthy conditions among clients. Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover in Apr 2022 sustains the revival growth of 28.4% yoy and 3.6% mom to USD3.1bn. Revenue recovery could ramp up in 2Q22F for T&G segments.