17
4月
Vietnam is one of the top 3 largest shrimp exporting countries in the world, making up about 10.1% market share of the global shrimp exporting industry value. In 2023, shrimp market was projected to slow down. Yet, we believe that the Vietnamese shrimp industry's growth rate will increase till 2030.
12
4月
Mar export value of Vietnam’s T&G improved on a monthly basis largely based on the recovery in US market. Nonetheless, the Mar and Feb decent performance could not enlighten the 1Q23 tepid outcome with USD7.2bn, -17.4% yoy. Vietnam’s fiber and yarn (F&Y) export value remarkably slid 29.0% yoy but rose 11.0% mom to USD376mn in Mar. Following Feb’s solid industry growth, the Feb export revenue of most listed companies was favorable.
10
4月
Average daily trading value (ADTV) kept dropping to VND11,332bn (-18.3% qoq, -63.7% yoy) in 1Q23. The quarterly number of new accounts in 1Q23 marked the lowest since 1Q21 with 140,024 new accounts opening (-50.7% qoq, -79.3% yoy). VPS ranked 1st position in the HSX’s brokerage with 15.67% market share, +0.86%p qoq in 1Q23. This was also the highest market share in company history. The runner up was SSI with 11.53%, +1.57%p qoq.
30
3月
Rice export volume rocketed by 109% mom and 80% yoy to 900,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, rice exporting value surged by 108% mom and 95% yoy to USD480mn in Mar-23.
15
3月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Feb 23, we observed an improvement in total sales volume on m-o-m basis.
14
3月
Domestic production capacity has exceeded current domestic demand by at least 40%. Due to the falling price of fertilizer, farmers are postponing purchasing fertilizer, that led to a very high inventory and low sales of fertilizer in 1Q23.
14
2月
According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's textile and garment exports experienced a decrease in growth for the first time in 2022, with a -9.1% yoy decline, totaling USD8.5bn in 4Q22. The textile and garment industry is expected to face significant challenges in 1Q23F due to a decrease in demand for garments and high inventory levels at major foreign retailers such as Nike and Adidas.
10
2月
The industry posted a VND12,048bn revenue (+7.1% yoy, +5,7% qoq) and a VND842bn NPAT (+6.0% yoy, +13.5% qoq) in 4Q22. The 4Q22 aggregated blended gross margin (GM) was 25% (+2.1%p yoy, +0.1%p qoq), while the net margin (NM) nearly stayed the same as 4Q21 with 7.2% (+0.2%p yoy, -0.2%p qoq).
10
2月
The income of Vietnam workers was impacted by still sluggish export activities, thus we expect consumption of beer and dairy will continue to face the challenge in 1Q23F. However, we expect continuously the gross margins of listed dairy and beer companies to improve in 1Q23F due to enjoying cooling raw material prices. For sugar sector, we expect sales could grow up and improve gross margin due to higher selling prices.
09
2月
According to the GSO estimate, in Jan, the total agriculture export value was more than USD1.5bn (-10% mom, -8% yoy). Coffee brought the highest value of USD352mn (+12% mom, -5% yoy), and it accounted for 23% of total agriculture export turnover, followed by vegetables (19%) and rubber (17%).
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
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