18
5月
According to Insurance Association of Viet Nam (IAV) published 3M22 market firgures on May 16th 2022. Total insurance premium accumulated in 1Q22 was pegged VND58,485bn (+14.6% yoy). In which, life insurance premium increased by 14.7% to VND 17,082bn; non-life insurance premium also surged by 14.6% to VND38,403bn.
16
5月
In Apr 2022, electricity production was 22.6bn kWh (-3.5% mom, +1.9% yoy). Hydropower is the biggest beneficiary (+26.7% yoy) in the context of rising fuel oil and coal prices, coupled with tight coal supplies when coal and gas thermal power output sharply plunged. Vinacomin pledged to compensate the not-yet-delivered 1Q22 contracted coal volume in the remaining quarters, equivalent to 0.8mn tonnes. It promised to supply enough coal in 2Q22 to EVN’s power plants while the total value of imported coal reached its peak.
12
5月
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 1Q22, we saw aggregated revenue growth persisted with double digits while NPATMI growth was muted due to the higher base seen in 1Q21 and thinner yoy gross margin marred by input cost inflation. In 2Q22, we expect to see a slower pace in domestic demand revival in 2Q22F due to the sharp steel price rise in 4M22. The temporary global economic weakness caused by COVID-19 restrictions in China eased the prices of steel products and some input materials. Therefore, companies, especially flat steel exporters, can consider the temporary decline as an opportunity for lower-cost inventories.
10
5月
Based on our estimate, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of 24 listed fertilizer producers jumped 71.2% yoy (VND30.9tn), while aggregated NPATMI climbed 7.9x yoy (VND6.8tn). In 1Q22, total consumption volume sustained but export skyrocketed with 510,000 tonnes, +47% yoy/+31% qoq, equivalent to 44%/40% of the total export in 2020-21. We view the proposal to impose an export tax of 5% from the Ministry of Finance could weigh down some exporters. However, 5% is an insignificant threshold to loom the export where exporters could gain a lucrative gap between the export and domestic prices. Furthermore, when the Summer-Autumn crop comes, the domestic demand could bounce to offset the loss from export constrain if any.
10
5月
In Apr 2022, prelim seafood export value recorded USD1,056mn (+41% yoy and + 4% mom), driven by shrimp product with USD406mn (+35% yoy and +2% mom), pangasius product with USD297mn (+105% yoy a nd +11% mom).Vietnam’s prelim seafood export to US market increased to USD266mn (+79% yoy. +16% mom), China market also surged by 108% yoy and 12% mom to USD216mn in Apr.
27
4月
On Apr 26, Gia Lai Power (GEG) held its 2022 Annual General Meeting. GEG targets a revenue growth of 37% yoy to VND2,073bn in 2022F, fueled by a VND1,927bn power revenue. Nonetheless, profit before tax is pegged at VND345bn, - 6.4% yoy. Hydropower, solar power and wind power outputs are projected to reach 253mn kWh, 383mn kWh and 367mn kWh in 2022F, respectively. GEG will issue an additional 30.37mn shares to existing shareholders at 1000:94 and over 9mn ESOP shares with the selling price of VND11,000. The company asserted to focus on wind power projects in the 2022F-2025F and considered to proceed M&A deals to expand its wind power capacity.
21
4月
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Mar 22, we observed the continuous domestic revival in all finished steel products on month-on-month basic. . The total consumption volume (excluded steel coil) was up 17.4% mom to 1.9mn tonnes, -6.0% yoy.
20
4月
According to Insurance Association of Viet Nam (IAV), 2M21 total life premium was pegged at VND21,888bn (+17.2% yoy). In detail, the premium of renewal contract led the industry growth with VND15,829bn (32%yoy), offset by the tepid premium of new placement contract with VND6,059bn (-9.5% yoy). Non-life insurance premium surged to VND11,248bn (+15.3% yoy) with positive growth rate from health insurance, motor vehicle and P&C insurance. On the other side, the increasing trend of both deposit rates and bond yields will secure the investment income of insurance companies as the majority of insurance companies’ financial assets are in the form of bank term deposits and bond (both government and corporate).
15
4月
In 2022, we forecast that the seafood export value could reach USD9.2bn (+5.4% yoy). The validity of tariffs in FTAs sharpens the Vietnam fishery’s competitive edges and that bolsters export growth. Our Overweight rating on Vietnam’s seafood industry is based on the strong potential earnings growth for pangasius producers backed by the sustainable export demand.
08
4月
In 3M22, aggregate output volume went up 4.9% yoy to 63.03bn kWh thanks to economy recovery, in which hydropower and renewable energy are the biggest beneficiaries. Total coal volume supplied by Vinacomin (TKV) and Dong Bac Group were only 77% and lacked 1.36 million tonnes compared to contracted volume. Some coal-fired power plants are operating at 60-70% of capacity. EVN predicted a shortage of 3,000 megawatts of electricty.
24
8月
U.S July Retail sales and Vietnam T&G exports According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.7% MoM in July of 2023, marking a fourth consecutive rise, and beating market forecasts of a 0.4% increase. In more detail, US clothing store sales grew 1.34% YoY in July, slightly decelerated from 2.69% in June, but remain higher than the one-year slowest growth of 0.32% in April. The potential upturn in US clothing sales, given a relatively strong correlation with Vietnam T&G exports, subsequently benefiting this export sector in the latter half of 2023.
02
8月
July’s data revealed a substantial improvement in economic activities with a softer decline in export turnover, an improving industrial production, and a renewed acceleration in retail sales. On one hand, U.S. consumers tend to regain their confidence during the late phase of the global interest rate hike, fastening the resolution of the overstocking and consequently promoting Vietnam’s export activities. On the other hand, retail sales recorded a higher growth rate than in June coupled with moderate inflation after a series of easing fiscal policies, likely reflecting an expanding demand. We predict economic performance to improve further next month due to softening external headwinds and expanding domestic demand.
28
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. In addition, the well-controlled inflation and stable exchange rate provide more space for the monetary authority to follow the easing tendency in the next quarter.
13
7月
Although the economic performance picked up in 2Q23 in the late stage of the global interest rate hike, we believe that the acceleration of economic activities will need more time to be material due to the insignificant improvement of external factors and the weakening recovery in domestic consumption. On the upside, public investment will continue to be a spotlight in 3Q23 thanks to the government's effort in realizing the significantly higher workload than last year. Investment opportunities exist in Power and Agriculture, Seafood industries that backed by El-Nino and China consumption themes. Besides, crushed stone industry also offers a lucrative choice from 3Q23 for those investors seeking for rising public spending theme. We expect the target range for VNIndex in 2H23 to be 1,260-1,340 points.
30
6月
GSO’s June report shows a slight acceleration in economic performance for the second quarter of 2023. Although the economic growth surpassed the downgraded market assessment, it is far from the expected value in the eco-socio tasks. For the latest update in June, export activities deteriorated under the persistent slowdown in the consumption of Vietnam’s major trading partners, showing challenges for the economy to speed up. Regarding domestic factors, the recovery momentum in post-pandemic exhausted with retail sales much lower than the potential level. In the short term, we predict public investment will mainly support economic growth before material improvement in external factors occurs.
English
Tiếng Việt